300
FXUS61 KALY 170251
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
951 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 9:50 PM EST
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOCAL MAX IN WARM ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING LLJ CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EASTWARDS ACROSS NY, WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FOR WESTERN AREAS AND BY 06Z FOR WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. OUT AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS, LOW CEILINGS, DRIZZLE,
AND MIST REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A DECREASE IN
THE FOG/MIST AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OFF TO OUR WEST WHERE IT
IS RAINING. THEREFORE, WILL ONLY CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
DENSE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD GET
SCOURED OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RAIN BEGINS AND THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS. THE LAST AREA TO SEE THE COLD AIR
DISLODGED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE SEEN ON THE KALY 00Z SOUNDING, ANY LOCALES THERE THAT HAVE
SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIP BEGINS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. THEREFORE, WE ARE EXPECTING TO
ALLOW THE SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM AS
SCHEDULED, ALTHOUGH WILL REEVALUATE IN AN HOUR OR SO TO SEE IF
IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. OVERALL, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
PREVIOUS
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
MIST/DRIZZLE AROUND THIS EVENING WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH AT THE SURFACE. ASOS OBS
INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BASED
ON THIS AND A REPORT OF DENSE FOG NEAR TROY, WE HAVE ADDED
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UP TO
A GLAZE OF ICE FOR AREAS IN THE SPS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW ARE TRACKING THROUGH/NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING,
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION THAT SHOULD START
BETWEEN 03-06Z AND END LATE TONIGHT. ONCE SHOWERS BEGIN,
FOG/MIST MAY DIMINISH AND VISIBILITIES COULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING DRIZZLE/MIST. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
TOTALS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 0.2-0.5" THROUGH 7 AM
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTS SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES,
ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AROUND -5 TO -10C AND WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
REACH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NORTH OF ROUTE 28 AND WEST OF
ROUTE 30. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING OUT OF THE WEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN HIGH TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO MID 50S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-BEHIND RAIN AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. LOW TERRAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SEEING EITHER ALL SNOW OR
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT
A 20% CHANCE FOR SNOW OF LEAST 4" IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS A 70% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW 32 DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
BELOW 0 DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. WHILE THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST STRETCH OF WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER, CPC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME
FAVORED AGAIN FOR THE 23-29 DECEMBER TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH PSF REMAINS MVFR. EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AND VSYBS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z, AT WHICH POINT
RAIN MOVES IN. THE MIST/DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR. IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS.
TOMORROW, RAIN TAPERS OFF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IFR CIGS LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, OR IF CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO LOW-END MVFR AFTER SUNRISE
WITH WINDS PICKING UP. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING, ALLOWING FOR VFR VSBYS TO
RETURN AND MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS IS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, EXCEPT AT
PSF WITH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT. WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD,
LLWS CRITERIA WILL BE MET THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WIND WINDS AT
2000 FT VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AT
35-45 KT. SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH
WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AFTER 03-05Z, CONTINUING UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME GUSTY AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, ESPECIALLY AT ALB/PSF. GUSTS SHOULD
START TO DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH
NEAR TERM...TH/MAIN
SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...TH
AVIATION...MAIN
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