534
FXUS61 KALY 170845
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BEHIND THE STORM'S
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDAY, SKIES WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
THE DAY TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A MILDER AFTERNOON. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT, MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
-RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 345 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW PASSING ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES, WITH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN ITS
WAKE ACROSS WESTERN NY, WHERE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT IS STILL LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION ACROSS EASTERN PA, NORTHERN NJ AND JUST NORTH OF
THE NYC AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM, OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH BATCHES
OF RAIN, MIST AND DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WHILE SHELTERED AREAS ARE STILL SEEING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, SOME
AREAS ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. THIS IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING WITHIN THE LARGE NORTH-SOUTH
VALLEYS (SUCH AS WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION), AS WELL AS
DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE GREENS, TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES, WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY WARMER TEMPS. IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPS ARE SURGED, THERE
HAS ALSO BEEN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, UNTIL THE STORM'S TRIPLE
POINT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY ABOUT 5 AM TO 7 AM.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS ALOFT TO COOL,
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE WELL MIXED AND LESS
STABLE, REMOVING THE STUBBORN INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE.
DESPITE BEING BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD,
THANKS TO THE BETTER MIXING AND LACK OF TRUE COLD AIR BEING IN
PLACE JUST YET. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THE
WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT AND SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THANKS TO THE DECENT MIXING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE. SOME GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
DISCUSSION:
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL DIMINISH, ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME CLOUDS MAY STILL
CONTINUE FOR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO MOISTURE
OFF THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES, OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE, FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF DRY, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA, AND IT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO COAST OF THE
NORTHEAST AS IT LIFTS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FAIRLY STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN, WESTERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MAINLY RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON
SOUTH AND EAST. THE CAPITAL REGION MAY BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, ALTHOUGH MILD TEMPS IN THE VALLEY AREAS MAY
PREVENT MUCH SNOW FROM OCCURRING, EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COOLING AND ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. NBM PROBS SHOW ABOUT A
20%-30% CHANCE OF 4" OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS, SO WE COULD NEED SOME ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.
LATEST MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 2-5" RANGE FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, WITH A COATING TO AN INCH
OR TWO FOR THE CATSKILLS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON WED NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S, FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT IT WON'T LAST TOO LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR WITH JUST A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE, SKIES LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR EARLY IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, BUT WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA GETS CLOSER BY LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL SEE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A LOW TRACK EXPECTED TO
BE WELL OFFSHORE, MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN ON THE COLDER
FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 20S TO MID
30S ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE PASSING LOW WILL ALSO BRING
MEDIUM CHANCES, 40-70%, FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES, IS FAVORED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST ACCUMULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SENSITIVE
TO POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE STORM TRACK.
AS THE LOW EXITS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COLDER
AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, BRINGING WHAT MAY BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. 850-HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -15 AND -20C BY SUNDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
TREND DOWNWARD TO ONLY THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND MID 10S TO MID 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS MAY BE VERY COLD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED BETWEEN -10F AND 10F ACROSS THE REGION. PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS -20F IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, AND AS COLD AS -10F WITHIN VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BUT REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL INTO
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 10-11Z MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT GENERALLY 5-10
KT WILL CONTINUE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 40-45 KT THROUGH
THE LOWEST 2 KFT IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH 10-12Z TUE.
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 10-12Z TUE, ALTHOUGH LINGERING IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, VSBYS WILL TREND TO MVFR AND
ULTIMATELY VFR BY 14-16Z TUE WHILE CIGS REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. SKIES MAY CLEAR TO SCT CLOUD COVERAGE AT POU/GFL THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY, WHILE FLOW ALONG THE MOHAWK
VALLEY WILL SEE ALB/PSF MAINTAIN CLOUDIER SKIES. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OF 5-10 KT AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TURN FURTHER
OUT OF THE WEST AT 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 22-24Z TUE. WINDS LESSEN TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...PICARD
AVIATION...PICARD
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