184
FXUS61 KALY 171503
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BEHIND THE STORM'S
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDAY, SKIES WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING
THE DAY TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A MILDER AFTERNOON. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT, MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
-RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
UPDATE...AS OF 1005 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH HAS
SLID JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY, NEARING OUR OVERHEAD WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
VEERING MORE TO THE WEST, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO ADVECT TOWARDS
THE REGION. IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, SOME SHALLOW, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
IN OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL TRACK INTO
THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TEMPERATURE OBS, SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 614 AM EST...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW PASSING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN ITS
WAKE ACROSS WESTERN NY, WHERE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 40S. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STEADY RAINFALL HAS FINALLY EXITED OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH ONE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. MOST AREAS ARE DONE SEEING PRECIP FOR THE
DAY AS THE UPSTREAM RADAR IS IMAGERY CLEAR AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY, SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS STARTING TO
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS ALOFT TO START
TO COOL, ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE WELL MIXED
AND LESS STABLE, REMOVING THE STUBBORN INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE. DESPITE BEING BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
MILD, THANKS TO THE BETTER MIXING AND LACK OF TRUE COLD AIR
BEING IN PLACE JUST YET. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT AND SHALLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. IN
ADDITION, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THANKS TO THE DECENT
MIXING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SOME GUSTS MAY BE AROUND
25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
DISCUSSION:
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL DIMINISH, ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME CLOUDS MAY STILL
CONTINUE FOR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THANKS TO MOISTURE
OFF THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES, OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE, FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF DRY, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA, AND IT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO COAST OF THE
NORTHEAST AS IT LIFTS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FAIRLY STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN, WESTERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MAINLY RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON
SOUTH AND EAST. THE CAPITAL REGION MAY BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, ALTHOUGH MILD TEMPS IN THE VALLEY AREAS MAY
PREVENT MUCH SNOW FROM OCCURRING, EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COOLING AND ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. NBM PROBS SHOW ABOUT A
20%-30% CHANCE OF 4" OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS, SO WE COULD NEED SOME ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS.
LATEST MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 2-5" RANGE FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, WITH A COATING TO AN INCH
OR TWO FOR THE CATSKILLS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON WED NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S, FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT IT WON'T LAST TOO LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR WITH JUST A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE, SKIES LOOK PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR EARLY IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, BUT WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA GETS CLOSER BY LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL SEE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A LOW TRACK EXPECTED TO
BE WELL OFFSHORE, MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN ON THE COLDER
FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 20S TO MID
30S ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE PASSING LOW WILL ALSO BRING
MEDIUM CHANCES, 40-70%, FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES, IS FAVORED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST ACCUMULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SENSITIVE
TO POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE STORM TRACK.
AS THE LOW EXITS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH COLDER
AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, BRINGING WHAT MAY BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. 850-HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -15 AND -20C BY SUNDAY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
TREND DOWNWARD TO ONLY THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS IN HIGH
TERRAIN AND MID 10S TO MID 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS MAY BE VERY COLD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED BETWEEN -10F AND 10F ACROSS THE REGION. PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS -20F IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, AND AS COLD AS -10F WITHIN VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BUT REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL INTO
MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGELY IFR CIGS WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS
PREVAIL CURRENTLY, WITH SOME AREAS OF LIFR OR LOW-MVFR CIGS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOW CIGS AT 500-1500 FT ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z TUE, WHILE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 8-12 KT GUST 15-20 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 25-30 KT ATOP AN
INVERSION LAYER AT 1-1.5 KFT WILL PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
ALL TERMINALS UNTIL 14-16Z TUE, WHEN THE FRONT PASSES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT AS CLOUD BASES
LIFT TO 2-3 KFT. FEW-SCT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT GFL/POU WHERE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL AID IN CLEARING, WHILE
FLOW ALONG THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL ALLOW ALB/PSF TO MAINTAIN BKN
CIGS. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST AT 8-12 KT GUSTING 15-20 KT AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ENDING BY 21-24Z TUE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AT 20-25 KFT INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GANT
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...PICARD
AVIATION...PICARD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page