061
FXUS61 KALY 180238
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
938 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, WILL BE IN PLACE BRIEFLY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW RETURN FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY TRENDING COLDER. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DROPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
9:35 PM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS AND GOES EAST
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS THAT SHOWS THE INCREASING OVERCAST CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TEMPERATURES AND PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION, FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ARE ON TRACK
AND NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING SOME CLEARING IN VALLEY AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THIS
CLEARING AND COLD AIR BEING SLOW TO ADVECT EASTWARD IN THE
NEWLY-ESTABLISHED WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW. ACCORDING TO THE NYS
MESONET, THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID 30S
WITH LOW 40S TO LOW 50S DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, SOME
POCKETS OF MID 50S HAVE BEEN REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MIXING UP TO ABOUT 900 MB
ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND HAS
LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FURTHER TO THE WEST, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OFF LAKE ONTARIO. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING ALOFT UNDER A TROUGH FILLING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THIS MORNING'S
FRONT THROUGH ALSO PUSHES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER, AS WINDS BACK FROM A PREDOMINANTLY WEST
DIRECTION TO ONE WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL CEASE, LEADING TO REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS BY
ABOUT 2 AM THROUGH 6 AM. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE: LIGHT SNOW TOTALING 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE OUTER REACHES OF A SURFACE
HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION AS ITS CORE SLIDES EASTWARD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AREAS OF LOW 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL THEN FALL THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE UPPER-MIDWEST ABOUT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DRIVE NORTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THOUGH
THE WARM FRONT OF THE SURFACE LOW, EXTENDING HORIZONTALLY EASTWARD,
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, INTERSECTING THE FAVORED
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET TO ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE REGION, RUNNING NORTH AND EAST ALONG LONG ISLAND SUCH THAT
COOLER AIR IS USHERS INTO THE REGION ON ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ADDITIONAL AID IN VERTICAL ASCENT WITH PVA ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS FAST UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BRINGS THE SWIFT EXIT OF BOTH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE
EVENTUAL COASTAL LOW.
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPING CONTINUITY WITH THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE REGION, ISOTHERMAL PROFILES, AND THEREFORE A RAIN/SNOW,
SOLUTION IS FAVORED. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
COOLING LEADING TO A PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.
ELSEWHERE IN VALLEY AREAS, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH SOME LIGHT, WET SNOW COULD MIX IN
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. HOWEVER, THIS
WOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER-HUDSON WHERE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. GENERALLY, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REACH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE 3 TO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REACHING UP TO 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF LOWER-END CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS THE TIMING OF SNOWFALL. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, SO THE SHEAR DURATION OF SNOWFALL COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL RECEIVED EVEN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO
HELP WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SAID AND DONE BEFORE THE MORNING
COMMUTE THURSDAY, SO NO VISIBILITY ISSUES WILL BE HAD DURING ROUTINE
TRAVEL, THOUGH UNTREATED ROADWAYS COULD BE SLIPPERY. WEAK,
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO FOR
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED REGIONWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S
AND POCKETS OF LOW 40S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN DROP TO THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S WITH LOW
10S IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SINKS SOUTH
AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, ALLOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE REGION AND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS PRIMARILY
IN THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S BEFORE SUNDAY'S HIGHS ONLY REACH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS THEN COMES
MONDAY WITH UPPER 10S TO MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 10S TO LOW 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BOTH FEATURE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW 10S.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18/18Z. A MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER CONTINUES FOR KGFL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
IN BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AT KPOU, KPSF, AND KALB AND A MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR KGFL THAT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION FROM
VFR/MVFR TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SHSN...RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...WEBB
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