517
FXUS61 KALY 190523
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, DRIER AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND A BREEZY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1223 AM EST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEPART OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY
PRECIPITATION EXITING OFF TO THE EAST, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OVER NW CT. THIS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY AS THE STORM
PULLS AWAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA, BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
IN VALLEY AREAS) BY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH COLD
ADVECTION UNDERWAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, BRIEF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO, WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SHALLOW, WITH LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH WINDS BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT, THEY MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE. THIS INCREASED
MIXING MAY HELP BREAK UP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MIST THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WINDS WON'T BE TOO
STRONG (PERHAPS GUSTING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT LEVELS
THANKS TO THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION, HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE REAR FLANK OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, MAXIMIZING AT A COUPLE
TENTHS AT BEST. REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WEAK, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERHEAD FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ABOVE 500 FT AND MID/UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S IN VALLEY AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 10S TO MID/UPPER 20S AND POCKETS OF LOW 10S AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR
FRIDAY, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM(S) WHICH WILL CAUSE IT. BY FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE DIRECTLY BENEATH. AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEEPENS AND SINKS SOUTH AND EAST, THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN INTO A WAVE, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING LOW
OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC SHORELINE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST AS A RESULT OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PULSES WITHIN THE MAIN
TROUGH DRIVING VERTICAL ASCENT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. AS THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY STANDS, LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES. THIS RESULTS FROM THE LACK OF PHASING
OF THE DEEPENING LOW AND THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW END UP
BEING SLOWER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES, PHASING OF THIS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL, AND POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT OF, PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER WAY,
WITH A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE
LOW, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW. AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
STANDS, WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH POCKETS OF LOW 20S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND MID 30S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE LOW/UPPER 10S
TO LOW/MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS UNSETTLED MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS LEAD TO THE ROTATION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION. AND, WITH THE ONCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING INTO ONE ON A MUCH LARGER SCALE, A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE INFLICTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DOMINATING NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE MID/UPPER 10S AT HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AND
LOW TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FINALLY CEASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
BECOMES SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN FALL WIDELY TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLE
POCKETS OF NEGATIVE LOW 10S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS). HIGHS SUNDAY WILL THEN ONLY REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE UPPER 10S AND POCKETS
OF LOW 20S IN THE VALLEYS. SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE
AGAIN TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH
POCKETS OF NEGATIVE LOW 10S AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
SPEEDS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
RETURN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE 10S TO 20S BEFORE LOWS FALL
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH
WIDESPREAD 20S WITH LOW 30S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 10S AND 20S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR AT POU TO MVFR
AT ALB AND VFR AT GFL/PSF AS OF 12:10 AM EST. EXPECTING PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR, ESPECIALLY AT POU/PSF, THROUGH
8-9Z BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ERODES, AND
CIGS RISE TO 4000-5000 FT. EXCEPTION IN PSF, WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE,
HOWEVER, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH BKN TO
OVC SKIES AND CIGS BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT. CIGS LOWER TO 3000-4500 FT
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT, BUT A SWITCH IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAY ACTUALLY
ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AT PSF. WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT
FORM THE WEST THROUGH AROUND 15Z, AT WHICH POINT WEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 5KT WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF 00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...MAIN
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