650
FXUS61 KALY 231421
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS
DRY, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT MODERATE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH WARMER, ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
(EXCEPT PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS). TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE 10S THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION[0642]
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO UP TO 3 KT IN THE MORE
SHELTERED AREAS AND TO 5-10 KT IN SOME OF THE MORE OPEN AREAS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS,
SO TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BUMPED UP TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH CURRENT OBS. ALSO MORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW POINT AND
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER, BUT STILL CHILLY,
DAY TODAY.
OUR REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL
WINDS ARE RESULTING IN WEAK MID- LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TODAY WILL BE A
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS, WEAK LOW TO MID- LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION, AND A MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT, TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
10S IN THE TERRAIN TO 20S IN THE VALLEYS. EVEN STILL, THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME LAKE EFFECT, EXPECTED ON
AND OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT, A POSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT DUE
TO A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF
NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HERKIMER COUNTY. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND FALLING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES, LOWS FALL MAINLY BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DESPITE A LIGHT BREEZE HELPING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD, AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. SIMILAR
TO THE INITIAL COLD FRONT, A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL
DISRUPT ANY ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THE BAND WILL REDEVELOP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES, THE BAND WILL INITIALLY BE DIRECTED
MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AS THE FLOW DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD, 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO AROUND -15 TO -18C, ALTHOUGH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 800 MB WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL INTENSITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND.
THEREFORE, ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A COATING TO AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
COMBINED WITH DECREASING SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE UNDERCUT NBM LOWS BY
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WITH LOWS GENERALLY BETWEEN -5 TO +5F.
ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION, BUT IF CONFIDENCE IN MORE
CLEARING INCREASES THEN THERE IS ROOM FOR THESE LOWS TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS EVEN FURTHER.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH A
DRY START TO THE DAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SOME
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADKS SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
AGAIN IN THE 10S (TERRAIN) TO 20S (VALLEYS), BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER, MAINLY IN THE 10S, THANKS TO MORE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUN INTO NEXT WEEK AS CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION.
- SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CLIPPERS.
- TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DIPPING BELOW NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES. THE FIRST CLIPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE 20-50% RANGE WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE AN INCH
OR TWO MAY OCCUR. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WEAK WARM FRONT ON SUN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND A SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
INCREASE THE CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES
INCREASE TO 50-75% OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACK PARK
MON NIGHT FOR AN INCH OF SNOW WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES DOWNSTREAM
WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE
20S TO MID 30S AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD/ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON
TUE BASED ON THE NBM/WPC/MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT WITH
BLUSTERY WINDS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED BY WED WITH
THE WARM FRONT TO NEXT CLIPPER POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS ENDING 12Z/FRI FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS 9-12 KFT AGL. THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP 14-17Z WITH LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS SCT-BKN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH BASES 6-10 KFT AGL FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 05Z/FRI.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
6-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT AT KALB/KPSF. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO BE LIGHT IN VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUN NIGHT TO MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN/JPV
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
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