762
FXUS61 KALY 240208
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
908 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO BUILD EAST, SO A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL HELP WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AREAS THAT DO GO
CALM. A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED,
AROUND 1-2" OF SNOW EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND
< 1" IN THE W. MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AROUND 5-15F, BUT NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.
IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE, SOME MINOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN S. HERKIMER COUNTY WITH A NW FLOW
TRAJECTORY. MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MIXED LAYER, WITH MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 10S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IN MOST
SPOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME LAKE EFFECT,
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH/EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW TRAJECTORY TO BACK TO W-NW. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE SW ADIRONDACKS
FRI NIGHT, BUT WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE TURNING
COLDER AGAIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -5F TO HIGH SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECTED ON SAT
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR
NW ADIRONDACKS EARLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 10S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT
NIGHT, SO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W.
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BECOME RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S(MOUNTAINS) TO LOWER/MID
30S(VALLEYS). WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
- FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PARADE
OF CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST RELATIVELY WEAKER DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SNOW SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AREAS. A STRONGER
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUE. DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL MOISTURE/STABILITY PROFILES IN THE MIXED LAYER, THERE
MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. STILL QUITE EARLY TO
DETERMINE SPECIFICS, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. AT THE LEAST THERE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WED-THU
TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO SKC THIS EVENING AND THEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 3000 FEET SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
04Z-06Z. AT KPSF THE CEILING MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND 3000
FEET BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z-16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BE CALM
OR JUST VARIABLE AT TIMES. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND TOWARD 16Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KT AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
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