157
FXUS61 KALY 240550
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 1249 AM EST...NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW ZERO AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR EXAMPLE, KAQW HAS
FALLEN TO 0F, KALB 9F, KDDH 3F AND KGFL 5F. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE. WE LOWERED MINS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AND THEN HAVE THEM STEADY OR RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT
AND SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOCATIONS IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST TO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAYBE A DUSTING TO
AN INCH. FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON MORE TOWARDS THE LAKE GEORGE /
GLENS FALLS AREA AND THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION MORE THE
MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE, SOME MINOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN S. HERKIMER COUNTY WITH A NW FLOW
TRAJECTORY. MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MIXED LAYER, WITH MORE
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WEST OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 10S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE IN MOST
SPOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME LAKE EFFECT,
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH/EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MIXED LAYER FLOW TRAJECTORY TO BACK TO W-NW. SO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE SW ADIRONDACKS
FRI NIGHT, BUT WILL BE MINOR. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE TURNING
COLDER AGAIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -5F TO HIGH SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECTED ON SAT
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR
NW ADIRONDACKS EARLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 10S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT
NIGHT, SO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE W.
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BECOME RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S(MOUNTAINS) TO LOWER/MID
30S(VALLEYS). WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
- FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PARADE
OF CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST RELATIVELY WEAKER DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SNOW SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AREAS. A STRONGER
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUE. DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL MOISTURE/STABILITY PROFILES IN THE MIXED LAYER, THERE
MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. STILL QUITE EARLY TO
DETERMINE SPECIFICS, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. AT THE LEAST THERE
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WED-THU
TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS
FORMING AND DIMINISHING AROUND 3-6.5 KFT. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT A CONCERN WITHIN THIS CYCLE OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE STRAY FLURRY. OTHERWISE, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GANT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page