975
FXUS61 KALY 241730
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. COLD
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A
CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS
POPPING UP RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAINLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, SO
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION[0645]
BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND OBS, ADDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND S. GREENS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST/EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 10S AND 20S THIS MORNING.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. A SHORT-WAVE AND A COLD FRONT
IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 0830 UTC.
SOME LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS
PARK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
A FEW OF THE FLURRIES MAY GET TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION BUT THIS
SYSTEM LACKS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL BY 5 DEGREES OR SO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW READINGS AROUND 30F IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO OPEN THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MODERATION OF TEMPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS TO CLOSE IT.
- CLIPPER TYPE LOW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
DISCUSSION:
THE H500 CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEPOSIT
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF INCH OVER THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH OF THE TRI CITIES
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK, SOUTHERN GREENS
AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS. EXPECT
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY DRIFT IN OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE MID TO LATE PM.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS WILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS AND TEENS TO
LOWER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO SAT NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS
WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. SNOW SHOWERS
TAPPING LAKE MOISTURE WILL BREAK OUT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS, BUT TEMPS MAY FALL EARLY AND THEN RISING OVERNIGHT IN THE
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
THE CLIPPER REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS (LOCALLY HEAVY) AND FLURRIES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN DACKS WHERE 2-4"
OF SNOW MAY OCCUR AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. TEMPS BRIEFLY SURGE TO SEASONABLE READING IN THE 20S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH. THE WINDS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT WITH SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
CONTINUING FOR THE WESTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
- DESPITE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS, THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS (E.G. THOSE WARRANTING AN ADVISORY OR WARNING
HEADLINE) IS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WITHIN NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THOUGH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEW
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF PRIMARILY DRY WITH SOME HIGH-ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS COURTESY OF A POSSIBLE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BAND STRETCHING NORTH AND EAST OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. BUT AS FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE, THE BAND WILL SHIFT OUT OF OUR CWA
YIELDING DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY REGIONWIDE BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID/UPPER 20S
ABOVE 1000 FT AND LOW TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING EAST FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
THEN DRIVE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT,
THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN, SOUTH AND
EAST AS WELL AS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY RISING TO THE 20S AND 30S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT COMPLETE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST,
REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE THEN
HINTS AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. GENERAL
CONSENSUS POINTS TO A CLIPPER-LIKE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, BUT THERE IS AN OUTLIER IN THE CMCNH THAT DOES NOT BRING
THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE THE FORMER WOULD BRING
MORE SNOW TO AREAS WITHIN AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN BOTH SOLUTIONS.
WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF AIR FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT, LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW/MID
10S AND POSSIBLE NEGATIVES IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS WILL RANK CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN WITH 10S TO 20S
AND POCKETS NEAR 20 IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY
RISING ONLY INTO THE 10S AND 20S THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONE TO TEN BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE
DIGITS REGIONWIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY, OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS OF 5000-7000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AT KGFL AND KALB. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO 8- 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page