696
FXUS61 KALY 250209
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
909 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION:
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE AND EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD EAST INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION, SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRES AND MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. JUST
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, SKY COVER AND SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH/EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.
SO WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY, SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
BUILDING IN AND ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW. AS MIXED LAYER WINDS BACK,
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT NORTH FROM THE W. MOHAWK
VALLEY TO THE W. ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE < 1". OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -5
TO 5F. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH/EAST, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY ZONAL. SO MOSTLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S). A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THEN
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT, SO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND WITH
NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUN, BRINGING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S(MOUNTAINS)
TO MID 30S(VALLEYS). WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 25- 35 MPH DEVELOPING. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ALIGNED SUN AFTERNOON, WITH COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN
CONDITIONAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE W. ADIRONDACKS. THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 3-7" ACROSS MUCH OF N. HERKIMER INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT, <
1" ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MON MORNING AS THE MIXED LAYER
FLOW BACKS TO A SW DIRECTION AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL STABILITY. ZONAL FLOW WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S), HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-30 MPH MAKING
IT FEEL COLDER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION:
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CLIPPERS.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO PUSH SE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD/STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE
W. ADIRONDACKS WITH UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THERE.
THE NEXT FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE TUE NIGHT TO WED TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE CYCLONE TRACK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK SOUTH OF I-90, THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE NORTH AND ALSO SOME ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OR
EVEN SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEHIND MID WEEK CLIPPER, A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS PLUNGES
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH NEAR OR BELOW 500 DAM 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV. SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WED
TO FRI. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO THUR INTO FRI, BUT
OVERALL DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
JUST INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WELL ABOVE 3000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY VFR AS WELL. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF CEILING AROUND 3000 FEET TOWARD
DAYBREAK AT KPSF BUT KEEPING SCATTERED UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS
CAN BE WATCHED AS WE GET LATER INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN, MAINLY VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS AND CALM AT
TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
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