238
FXUS61 KALY 250550
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
MORNING
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 1249 AM EST...
TEMPS VARY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, AS SOME
CLEARING OCCURED OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WHICH ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO (0 TO -5F) AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEMPS
ELSEHWERE. HOWEVER, CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WE ADJUSTED POPS
AND TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALSO WE EXPANDED CLOUDS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST AS THE FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
ABOUT 5 BELOW ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK, SOUTHERN GREENS,
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH/EAST, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW FAIRLY ZONAL. SO MOSTLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES(HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S). A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY JUST
PRIOR TO SUNSET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THEN
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT, SO CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND WITH
NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUN, BRINGING MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME RELATIVELY MILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S(MOUNTAINS)
TO MID 30S(VALLEYS). WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 25- 35 MPH DEVELOPING. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ALIGNED SUN AFTERNOON, WITH COLD ADVECTION RESULTING IN
CONDITIONAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE W. ADIRONDACKS. THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 3-7" ACROSS MUCH OF N. HERKIMER INTO
WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT, <
1" ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MON MORNING AS THE MIXED LAYER
FLOW BACKS TO A SW DIRECTION AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL STABILITY. ZONAL FLOW WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S), HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-30 MPH MAKING
IT FEEL COLDER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION:
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CLIPPERS.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO PUSH SE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD/STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE
W. ADIRONDACKS WITH UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THERE.
THE NEXT FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE TUE NIGHT TO WED TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE CYCLONE TRACK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK SOUTH OF I-90, THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE NORTH AND ALSO SOME ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS OR
EVEN SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
BEHIND MID WEEK CLIPPER, A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS PLUNGES
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH NEAR OR BELOW 500 DAM 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV. SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WED
TO FRI. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO THUR INTO FRI, BUT
OVERALL DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY CLOUDS SPREAD ABOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. FAVORED FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE 06Z CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL ENSURE PATCHY CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH MID TO HIGHER-LEVEL CEILINGS FORMING
BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF
THE WEST TO SOUTH WEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS WELL UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GANT
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