042
FXUS61 KALY 251426
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
926 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
MAINLY FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING SOME SNOW TO LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEASONAL LEVELS, AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY
UPDATES:
9:25 AM...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS
DAYLIGHT IS INCREASING, GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING SHOWING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK AND ICE
COVER OVER THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 645 AM EST...
FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A SFC ANTICYLONE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
IS OVER THE REGION WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE CAPITAL REGION,
SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWER CLOUDS
PERSIST NORTH AND WEST AND ALSO SOME STRATUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION BEGINNING, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A NBM/GFS MOS BLEND WERE
ACCEPTED WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30F IN THE VALLEYS AND MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNSET OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES 1 AM SAT TO 1 AM SUN FOR 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (60 TO 80 PERCENT) TEMPS RISE TO
SEASONAL LEVELS SUN AND MON.
DISCUSSION:
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SAT NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER,
AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE. WE HAVE 1-2" OF SNOW
FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND A COATING TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN GREENS SAT NIGHT. LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE
EVENING AND THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F. WE STARTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 06Z FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR THE INITIAL BURST OF SYNOPTIC SNOW.
BY SUNDAY, THE CLIPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY PM. TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPOTTY UPPER 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS/BANDS
TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN INLAND ENOUGH FETCH TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLASS. THE 260-270 DEGREE TRAJECTORY
SHOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM OLD FORGE AND ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD.
WE HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 2-5" OF SNOW ADDED TO THE 1-2", SO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE RUN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FOR 3-7".
SOME LIGHT WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN
WILL AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR TWO. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD TAPER BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY OR MIXED LAYER FLOW BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE INVERSION LOWERING. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS.
THE WEEK WILL OPEN WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST, AS
A FEW SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH SUNSHINE
WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A COLD FRONT AND
A SHORT-WAVE TIED TO THE POLAR VORTEX EAST/SOUTHEAST OF JAMES
BAY MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOWFALL MAY
BLOSSOM OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, AS THE DISTURBANCE TAPS
LAKE MOISTURE. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK MAY RECEIVE
2 TO 6" OF SNOW BASED ON THE WPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
NORTH AND WEST. ANY ACCUMS WILL BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO MULTIPLE CLIPPER-LIKE DISTURBANCES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH TWO MAIN
DISTURBANCES PULSING THROUGH IT TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. TUESDAY OPENS WITH THE FIRST OF THESE: A CLOSED UPPER
LOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT TO THIS SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST INTO NORTHWEST
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING, TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING MAINLY INTO AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES COURTESY OF MILDLY MOIST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO 2
INCHES WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY CEASES BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE,
PRIMARILY IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
GUIDANCE ALIGNING MORE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ATTENDING A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OF THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE UPPER/NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING
SNOW TO ONCE AGAIN SPREAD INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE HEAVIER, MORE
CONSISTENT SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90,
SHOWERS COULD BE MORE SPATIALLY VAST THAN THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE
LEADING TO LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS REGIONWIDE.
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT REQUISITE INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN AND AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR SO WE
WILL BE MONITORING THAT POTENTIAL AS LEAD TIME DECREASES AS WELL.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S
BEFORE HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE 20S TO 30S ONCE AGAIN.
SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
10S WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 10S TO 20S WITH
SINGLE DIGITS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO
AROUND -10 TO 5 DEGREES WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WIDELY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW 10S WITH SOME POCKETS OF JUST BELOW 0 IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FAVORED FLYING CONDITIONS
ARE SET TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS
AROUND 3000 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT
KGFL, SO ADDED AT TEMPO FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES FOR KALB, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAF FOR THIS TERMINAL. WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS WHERE NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, VARIABLE CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WELL WITHIN THE VFR THRESHOLDS WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
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