401
FXUS61 KALY 260558
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WITHIN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES ANTICIPATED
THIS COMING WEEK WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AND WHILE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR TODAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WE
DROP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING CHANCES OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
UPDATES:
AS OF 1258 AM EST...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH THE MOST NOTABLE BEING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AND POPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH CLOUDS MOST
DENSE WITHIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, WHILE MOST OF THE
AREA RANGES FROM THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S, POCKETS OF UPPER 20S
CO- EXIST WITH POCKETS OF SINGLE DIGITS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
MOST DENSE AND WHERE SKIES ARE CONVERSELY MAINLY CLEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, POPS WERE DELAYED A BIT AS THE LOW IS TAKING ITS
TIME TRACKING EASTWARD, IT'S COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ADDITIONAL
DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
LATEST RADAR SCANS AND LIVE WEBCAMS SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO MONTGOMERY AND
SCHOHARIE COUNTIES AS OF 4 PM THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ENTERING VERY DRY AIR WE HAVE IN
PLACE SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE LITTLE TO NONE AS SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL
TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. THE
WINTER WINTER ADVISORIES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
BEGINS TONIGHT AS SNOWFALL IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE BETWEEN 3 TO
6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOST NORTHERN
PORTION OF HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH, I KEPT MENTION OF 15-30%
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS AS LATEST FORECAST TRENDS SUPPORT LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TOMORROW BUT A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES (50%) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
THROUGH TUESDAY, WE'LL FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IS
GOING TO BE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS,
BERKSHIRES, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THESE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS HAVE MORE SNOWPACK AND MORE LINGERING CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE THE
SNOW BANDS MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES ON MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING, WHICH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ENDS AT 1 AM MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LULL IN THE
SNOW, BUT ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
MODELS TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS ON THIS SYSTEM AS WE MAY NEED
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT TIMING IS STILL TRICKY AS SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVING THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH FASTER AND
SOONER WHILE OTHERS ARE HINTING AT IT MOVING THROUGH MUCH LATER
IN THE MORNING, BEST TIMING IS BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COLD FRONT HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SQUALL-
LIKE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS THE INGREDIENTS
NEEDED FOR SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS SUCH AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE, ARE FAVORED BY HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCES. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, A BRIEF BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK
- DAILY CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF
SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS, KEPT MENTION OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO
BRING CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS IS STILL 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
QUICKLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS AND REMAIN
BITTERLY COLD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING THE
COLDEST AS CLEAR SKIES AND ANY RECENT SNOWFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES STICK
AROUND TO BEING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH TO MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. FOR KGFL, THERE COULD BE VICINITY
SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FROM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAFS. WIND GUSTS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS, OTHERWISE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...WASULA
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