893
FXUS61 KALY 261131
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WITHIN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES ANTICIPATED
THIS COMING WEEK WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AND WHILE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR TODAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WE
DROP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVERHEAD WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY TO HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
TODAY.
- LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, LEADING TO OVERALL MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN
HERE THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 630 AM EST...THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH THIS UPDATE WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH CHOPPY LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED OVERHEAD WITH ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT STILL TRAILING TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHOSE TRACK RESEMBLES THAT OF A TYPICAL
CLIPPER, HAS SETTLED JUST OVERHEAD LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH IT'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW YORK. WE CURRENTLY SIT WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S PSEUDO
WARM SECTOR WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, AND UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY AS SEEN ON THE KENX RADAR. NYS
MESONET CAMS IN THESE AREAS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS, IN FACT
REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE SOME WEAKER REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
ESPECIALLY IN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE SOUTHEAST CANADA, ALLOWING ITS COLD FRONT TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE, PRIMARILY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS,
AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT IS
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, MOST RESULTANT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO CONCLUDE BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM. HOWEVER, UPON THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT, THE NEWLY-INDUCED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
COLD- ADVECTED REGIME WILL GENERATE A LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH FLOW ALIGNED WITH THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE, A
PRIMARY SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS INDICATE A
SHIFT IN THE INITIAL ORIENTATION OF THE BAND FARTHER SOUTH, SO
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
HOWEVER, FOR THE MOST PART, ADDITIONAL MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR THE BAND TO WOBBLE NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS,
AND EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN SOME AREAS, WITH MID/UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER CLIPPER-RESEMBLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF A
SNOW SQUALL(S) TRAVERSING THE I-90 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE, ALLOWING THE PRIMARY BAND OFF LAKE
ONTARIO TO SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
ONCE AGAIN, THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY FOR
ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL WIDELY TO THE 10S WITH POCKETS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 2000 FT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGIONWIDE BRIEFLY IN THE PRELIMINARY
HOURS OF MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
BREEZY, HOWEVER, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER.
SPEAKING OF, OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN THE FORM OF YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHOSE TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF A CLIPPER.
THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, LOOKS TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL FORCE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
THOUGH THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN ONSET OF
SNOW MONDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SLIDES FARTHER EAST FROM AROUND THE
JAMES BAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD- SINKING COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE SURFACE LOW COURTESY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST- TRAVERSING
BOUNDARY WITH UVV INCREASING ALONG IT COURTESY OF STRONG LOW-
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. DUE TO THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL TRACK, THESE FACTORS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF REQUISITE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE ~30-60 J/KG)
PRESENT, LATEST CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A STRONG SNOW
SQUALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT COULD TRACK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MAINLY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING IS GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT WITH THIS
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AS AN EARLIER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S WITH 10S IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOWS BRINGS A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL TUE NIGHT THRU WED.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SAT INTO SUN WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON STORM TRACK AND PTYPE.
DISCUSSION:
A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST TO
OPEN THE EXTENDED. IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT. AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. PROBABILITIES OF SNOW INCREASE TO 50 TO
70% FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
PRIOR TO 12Z/WED. LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTHWARD, BUT STILL A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SNOW CONTINUES DURING THE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WIDESPREAD 1-3" SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH 2-6" OR A MODERATE
SNOWFALL. SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OR MIX WITH SOME
RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WITH SOME COLDER READINGS OVER
THE MTNS.
THE COLD FRONT TO CLIPPER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS. SOME BRIEF MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PERSIST INTO THU WITH SOME
SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS KEPT IN FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WED NIGHT AND SOME ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THU WILL RUN CLOSE TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS AND LOWER AND SPOTTY MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS.
A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSISTING TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A POTENT STORM OVER THE CONUS WHICH MAY IMPACT
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SAT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A LEAD SFC WAVE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH, AS WE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE WPC/NBM GUIDANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK,
EVOLUTION AND PTYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL READINGS ON SAT.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE ENDING AT 12Z/MON
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT. BASES CONTINUE TO LOWER 4-8 KFT AGL FROM
KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NEAR KPOU. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH KGFL 12Z-15Z/SUN WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR VSBYS. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED
AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD AT 3.5-5 KFT AGL WITH
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO 21Z/SUN TO
00Z/MON. KPOU WILL LIKELY GO SCATTERED WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AFTER 00Z/MON AT ALL THE TAF SITES
WITH FEW-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE BROKEN
SKY COVER WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT AFTER
12Z/SUN AND VEER TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY PM AT 10-16 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z/MON.
LLWS WAS KEPT IN KGFL/KPOU TAFS UNTIL 15Z, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS
ARE 35-40 KT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THE SFC WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. THE LLWS DIMINISHES THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page