957
FXUS61 KALY 261740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ITS WAKE
AS WELL. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1240 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD, A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT AND LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NOW IMPACTING THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE GLENS FALLS AND
SARATOGA REGIONS, WITH LIGHTER FLURRIES NOW OVER THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INTERMITTENT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE A QUICK COATING
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SPOTS, THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION WITH
TODAY'S ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. EVENTUALLY, THE FLOW WILL
START SHIFTING ONCE AGAIN AND THE ACTIVITY WILL START RETURNING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH PLENTY OF STRATOCU CLOUDS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH MANY AREAS
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY IN
THE GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. SOME GUSTS WILL
REACH 25 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. A FEW ISOLATED DOWNED TREES/LIMBS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER CLIPPER-RESEMBLING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF A
SNOW SQUALL(S) TRAVERSING THE I-90 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE, ALLOWING THE PRIMARY BAND OFF LAKE
ONTARIO TO SHIFT NORTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
ONCE AGAIN, THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY FOR
ANTICIPATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL WIDELY TO THE 10S WITH POCKETS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 2000 FT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGIONWIDE BRIEFLY IN THE PRELIMINARY
HOURS OF MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
BREEZY, HOWEVER, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER.
SPEAKING OF, OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN THE FORM OF YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHOSE TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF A CLIPPER.
THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, LOOKS TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL FORCE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
THOUGH THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN ONSET OF
SNOW MONDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SLIDES FARTHER EAST FROM AROUND THE
JAMES BAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD- SINKING COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE SURFACE LOW COURTESY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST- TRAVERSING
BOUNDARY WITH UVV INCREASING ALONG IT COURTESY OF STRONG LOW-
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. DUE TO THE CURRENT
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL TRACK, THESE FACTORS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF REQUISITE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE ~30-60 J/KG)
PRESENT, LATEST CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A STRONG SNOW
SQUALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT COULD TRACK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MAINLY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ABOUT 09-12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING IS GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT WITH THIS
ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AS AN EARLIER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S WITH 10S IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOWS BRINGS A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL TUE NIGHT THRU WED.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT SAT INTO SUN WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON STORM TRACK AND PTYPE.
DISCUSSION:
A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST TO
OPEN THE EXTENDED. IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT. AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. PROBABILITIES OF SNOW INCREASE TO 50 TO
70% FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
PRIOR TO 12Z/WED. LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTHWARD, BUT STILL A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SNOW CONTINUES DURING THE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WIDESPREAD 1-3" SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH 2-6" OR A MODERATE
SNOWFALL. SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND
CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OR MIX WITH SOME
RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WITH SOME COLDER READINGS OVER
THE MTNS.
THE COLD FRONT TO CLIPPER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS. SOME BRIEF MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PERSIST INTO THU WITH SOME
SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS KEPT IN FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WED NIGHT AND SOME ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THU WILL RUN CLOSE TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS AND LOWER AND SPOTTY MID 20S IN THE
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MTNS.
A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSISTING TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A POTENT STORM OVER THE CONUS WHICH MAY IMPACT
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SAT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A LEAD SFC WAVE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH, AS WE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE WPC/NBM GUIDANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK,
EVOLUTION AND PTYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL READINGS ON SAT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. STRATOCU WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KALB/KGFL BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR ANY REDUCED VISIBILITY WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WESTERLY WIND BETWEEN 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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