945
FXUS61 KALY 262040
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ITS WAKE
AS WELL. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 340 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD, A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT AND LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OFF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
INTERMITTENT BURST OF SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE SARATOGA REGION
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, WITH LIGHTER FLURRIES NOW OVER THE
CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION. INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THESE ON
AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE A QUICK
COATING CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SPOTS, THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
EVENTUALLY, THE FLOW WILL START SHIFTING ONCE AGAIN AND THE
ACTIVITY WILL START RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAMS SUGGEST THAT
THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WILL PUSH THE BANDS BACK TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM. BY THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, SNOWFALL WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND BE MORE FOCUSED
ON AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE, ENDING THE ACCUMULATION IN OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE LAKE EFFECT ENDS IN OUR AREA,
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH
PLENTY OF STRATOCU CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCE
OF SOME BREAKS WILL BE FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS
TO DEEP MIXING TODAY, THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL WINDS WON'T BE GOING CALM
ANYWHERE, THEY SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH OR SO
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PARTS OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF SQUALLS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION:
MOST OF MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA, AS WE WILL BE IN A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY, AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACROSS OUR AREA, SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-35
MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY, WITH DECENT MIXING ALLOWING
FOR DAYTIME TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY.
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO IMPACT THE REGION, THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW, LAKE MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL BE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS ON MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE BEST ACCUMULATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE, ALONG WITH THE
STRONG FORCING, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG SNOW SQUALLS BEING IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL,
ALL AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF IMPACT OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOST CAMS SUGGEST THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
LINE UP WITH SOME MORNING TRAFFIC FOR EASTERN AREAS, SO THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
20S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CRASH AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE BRIEFLY COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, BUT THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ON TUESDAY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
PLACE AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S, ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY HEADING TOWARDS THE AREA
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE WILL BE TAKING
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK, SO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT
TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECENT ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP. HOWEVER, EVEN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE, AS THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SHOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION AS
WELL. AFTER LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH LOWS
BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM TRACK AND PTYPE.
DISCUSSION:
LOTS OF INCONSISTENCIES SEEN IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES FOR
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. COLD ADVECTION TURNING TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND
AROUND 20 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BIG DIFFERENCES IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES IN TERMS OF HOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A
WEAKENING OPEN WAVE TRACKING QUICKLY AND FARTHER SOUTH.
THE STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A MIX TO A PLOWABLE
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN OUR REGION, WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
INDICATING SOME CHANCE FOR A MIX TURNING TO SNOW BUT JUST CHANCES
UNTIL GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES RESOLVE THE SYSTEM BETTER AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 20S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MID
20S HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH UPPER
20S HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. STRATOCU WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KALB/KGFL BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR ANY REDUCED VISIBILITY WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WESTERLY WIND BETWEEN 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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