944
FXUS61 KALY 271153
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY REGIONWIDE TODAY BEFORE
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGS MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE COMES THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE SECOND CLIPPER COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
- WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH
LATEST OBS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY CEASED IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, REINFORCING REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
AND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL,
CALM-BEFORE-THE-STORM MORNING. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LIGHT FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THIS
MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES, AS
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHILE A BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS THAT, AT ONE POINT SPANNED THE EASTERN CATSKILLS;
CAPITAL DISTRICT; AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT/NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY OFF LAKE ERIE IS BEGINNING TO SINK SOUTH AND
DISSIPATE IN THE FACE OF DRIER AIR. WHILE THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WERE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO HAVE CEASED BY THIS
POINT, AT LEAST IN OUR AREA, UPSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY MAKING UP
FOR THE WEAKENING AND DISORGANIZATION OF THE PRIMARY BAND. BUT,
BASED ON NYS MESONET CAMERAS IN OLD FORGE AND RAQUETTE LAKE,
THIS IS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT FLURRIES TO REACH
THE GROUND, SO LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE RESULTING. AS
WINDS UPSTREAM BACK FARTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK, THE
REACH OF THE MOISTURE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RECEDE
SOUTH AND WESTWARD, FINALLY PUTTING AN END TO THESE SHOWERS.
THE NEW WORK WEEK KICKS OFF TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES AS WE FIND OURSELVES IN A LULL BEFORE OUR NEXT
WEATHER PRODUCER. HOWEVER, THE EFFECTS OF SAID SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BE FELT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM
OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
FROM THE BUILDING HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. DEEP MIXING TO
BETWEEN 900 TO NEARLY 850 MB WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
STRENGTHENING LLJ TO BE TAPPED INTO, LEADING TO GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA AND UP TO 45 MPH IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT NOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST FROM AROUND THE HUDSON BAY, EXTENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WEST. SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN OUT AHEAD
OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROVIDED IN
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WEST. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT A PRE-EXISTING, LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE
AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT. ONSET LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM
THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN TERMS
OF RATES. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS, SNOWFALL COULD BECOME
MODERATE BRIEFLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A BAND OF FGEN CROSSES
INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AGREEMENT IN A SPATIALLY-
EXTENSIVE SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPING IN TANDEM WITH THIS BAND OF
FGEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT CROSSES
INTO OUR REGION. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WITHIN/NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE A WIDE AXIS OF
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THAT WILL INTERSECT THE
MOISTURE-RICH DGZ, PROVIDING CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE SWIFT-MOVING
BOUNDARY ALSO PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER, WHAT CONTINUES TO
BE A CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN THE REQUISITE 50 J/KG WITH
THETA-E REMAINING RELATIVELY STAGNANT OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, BY THIS TIME PERIOD, THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, MAKING THIS
LESS THAN A KNOCK-OUT-OF-THE-PARK SQUALL SITUATION. THEREFORE,
HAVE MADE MENTION OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
AS, DEPENDING ON TIMING WHICH ALSO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
MODERATE SHOWERS/SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AS THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE FRONT, THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS
DECREASING IN SPATIAL SPREAD AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND
FORCING CONTINUES TO DECREASE. ALL IN ALL, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
ROUTE 28. THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN ENHANCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS, WILL SEE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 INCHES AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING
TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON REGIONWIDE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POCKETS OF LOW 30S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESEMBLING MORE OF A
CLASSIC ALBERTA-CLIPPER TRACK, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SURGE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A WARM
FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
START OFF LIGHT, BUT AS A POTENT BAND OF LOW-LEVEL FGEN TRACKS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, AND BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS. SNOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MIXED IN FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW HAS MADE FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN THE END TIME. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, THE LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH
THIS EVENT AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW/UPPER 30S WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S
WITH 1 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (30-40%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM
TRACKS, PTYPE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION:
LOTS OF INCONSISTENCIES SEEN IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES FOR
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. COLD ADVECTION TURNING TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND
AROUND 20 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BIG DIFFERENCES IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES IN TERMS OF HOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A
WEAKENING OPEN WAVE TRACKING QUICKLY AND FARTHER SOUTH.
THE STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A MIX TO A PLOWABLE
SNOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN OUR REGION, WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX. INDICATING
SOME CHANCE FOR A MIX TURNING TO SNOW BUT JUST CHANCES UNTIL
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES RESOLVE THE SYSTEM BETTER AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE
APPROACHES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW, OR SNOW/MIX TO
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 20S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, ALTHOUGH COULD
BE LOCALLY COLDER SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 08Z/TUE, WITH JUST SOME PATCHY CIGS OF 4000-5000 FG AGL
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KALB THROUGH 14Z/MON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE AFTER 08Z/TUE, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGFL,
KALB AND KPSF WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AT KGFL, AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KT ELSEWHERE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST REACHING 10-17 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT, STRONGEST AT KALB AND KGFL. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET TO 8-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITHIN
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 08Z/TUE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 25-35 KT.OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page