730
FXUS61 KALY 271804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY REGIONWIDE TODAY BEFORE
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGS MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE COMES THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS IN ADDITION TO
SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE SECOND CLIPPER COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 100 PM EST, A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING. DEEP MIXING AS SEEN IN
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S IN MOST AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH A 40-60 KT LLJ OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH IS EXPECTED. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7AM TUESDAY FOR N HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND WEST. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ABOUT A PRE-EXISTING, LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE
AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT. ONSET LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM
THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN TERMS
OF RATES. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS, SNOWFALL COULD BECOME
MODERATE BRIEFLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A BAND OF FGEN CROSSES
INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AGREEMENT IN A SPATIALLY-
EXTENSIVE SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPING IN TANDEM WITH THIS BAND OF
FGEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT CROSSES
INTO OUR REGION. STRONG LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WITHIN/NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE A WIDE AXIS OF
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES THAT WILL INTERSECT THE
MOISTURE-RICH DGZ, PROVIDING CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOWFALL
RATES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE SWIFT-MOVING
BOUNDARY ALSO PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER, WHAT CONTINUES TO
BE A CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE LOWER THAN THE REQUISITE 50 J/KG WITH
THETA-E REMAINING RELATIVELY STAGNANT OR SLIGHTLY INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, BY THIS TIME PERIOD, THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, MAKING THIS
LESS THAN A KNOCK-OUT-OF-THE-PARK SQUALL SITUATION. THEREFORE,
HAVE MADE MENTION OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY
AS, DEPENDING ON TIMING WHICH ALSO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
MODERATE SHOWERS/SQUALL-LIKE SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AS THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE FRONT, THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS
DECREASING IN SPATIAL SPREAD AS IT TRAVELS FARTHER SOUTH AND
FORCING CONTINUES TO DECREASE. ALL IN ALL, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
ROUTE 28. THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN ENHANCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS, WILL SEE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 INCHES AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING
TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON REGIONWIDE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POCKETS OF LOW 30S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESEMBLING MORE OF A
CLASSIC ALBERTA-CLIPPER TRACK, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SURGE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A WARM
FRONT ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
START OFF LIGHT, BUT AS A POTENT BAND OF LOW-LEVEL FGEN TRACKS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, AND BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS. SNOW, AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MIXED IN FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW HAS MADE FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN THE END TIME. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, THE LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH
THIS EVENT AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW/UPPER 30S WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S
WITH 1 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (30-40%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM
TRACKS, PTYPE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION:
LOTS OF INCONSISTENCIES SEEN IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES FOR
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. COLD ADVECTION TURNING TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND
AROUND 20 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BIG DIFFERENCES IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES IN TERMS OF HOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A
WEAKENING OPEN WAVE TRACKING QUICKLY AND FARTHER SOUTH.
THE STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A MIX TO A PLOWABLE
SNOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN OUR REGION, WITH THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX. INDICATING
SOME CHANCE FOR A MIX TURNING TO SNOW BUT JUST CHANCES UNTIL
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES RESOLVE THE SYSTEM BETTER AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE
APPROACHES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW, OR SNOW/MIX TO
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 20S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, ALTHOUGH COULD
BE LOCALLY COLDER SHOULD ANY CLEARING OCCUR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18 UTC/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 08 UTC/TUE. THEN, A POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING (09 - 15 UTC) RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALL AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY AT GFL, ALB AND PSF.
DURING ANY SNOW SQUALL, A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL (50 - 60% CHANCE)
FOR SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AT GFL AND ALB WITH JUST 30-50% CHANCE
AT PSF. ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL WILL BE BRIEF IN DURATION
AT LESS THAN 1 HOUR SO WE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP. SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WEAKEN AS THEY
HEAD SOUTHWARD TOMORROW MORNING SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALL POTENTIAL IN THE POU TAF.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-18
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT THROUGH 22-23 UTC, STRONGEST AT
ALB AND GFL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET TO 8-15 KT; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS 09 - 15 UTC/TUE WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS WINDS GUST UP TO 25-35 KT (STRONGEST
AT GFL, PSF AND ALB).
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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