212
FXUS61 KALY 280541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION TO
COMPLETION BY LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALL ACTIVITY QUICKLY CEASING BEHIND IT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
BRIEFLY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
SNOW SQUALLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME AREAS.
UPDATES:
AS OF 1245 AM EST...FEW CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT HAVE ALREADY TRAVERSED THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH SNOW SQUALLS STILL
REMAINING POSSIBLE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A 40-60 KT LLJ OVERHEAD WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
ELSEWHERE. INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SNOW SQUALLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST, DUE IN PART
TO VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LIFT/ENHANCED
FGEN ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THESE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING
OF THESE SQUALLS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY AND FROM 7 TO 9 AM AROUND ALBANY AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A
COATING TO AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE WHERE SNOW SQUALLS OCCUR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW SHOWERS, A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE (5 TO 8 HPA IN 3 HOURS PER THE NAM) COULD RESULT
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS EVENT.
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING COVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS
'WARM SECTORED' PENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. STEEPENING
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF AN PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SQUALLS. WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SQUALLS (>60
PERCENT) A SQUALL COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION (AT
LEAST 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY). AS A RESULT, THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE, LAKE- EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY, NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND
ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY, VERMONT. ELSEWHERE, 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE BRIEF RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (30-40%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM
TRACKS, PTYPE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION:
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY ALLOWS FOR
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PRECIPITATION EVENTS, EXACT AMOUNTS AND
TYPES REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, KEEPING OUR AREA ON
THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF THE PRECIP, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTH IS STILL IN QUESTION. BOTH TEMPS ALOFT AND WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. THE 12Z GEFS SUGGEST A
VARIETY OF P-TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
RAIN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ALL A POTENTIAL THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW, WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS RAIN OR SNOW
BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30%-50% RANGE
AT THIS TIME.
IT SHOULD BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER DAYTIME
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S, LOWS LOOK COLD ON SAT NIGHT,
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS STILL IN
QUESTION. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE, P-TYPE WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT AMOUNTS AND TIMING. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
THROUGH THIS EVENT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT THIS TIME TO START NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z-14Z/TUE. SNOW SHOWERS OR A
BRIEF SNOW SQUALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/WED. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z-
06Z/WED, WITH VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES, AND INCREASE TO
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE, STRONGEST AT KALB AND
KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KT, THEN WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z/TUE, AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KT, WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 35-
45 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/RATHBUN
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
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