463
FXUS61 KALY 281227
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION TO
COMPLETION BY LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALL ACTIVITY QUICKLY CEASING BEHIND IT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
BRIEFLY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS
AND STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SQUALLS HAVING CEASED WITH THIS UPDATE.
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THE LINE OF SQUALLS HAS WEAKENED AS IT
TRACKED FARTHER SOUTH, THOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TRACKED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS ITS PARENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN QUEBEC.
SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COURTESY OF MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT. STRONG, MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT PARTNERED WITH, THOUGH WEAKENING, A BAND OF RELATIVELY
STRONG FGEN AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A SWATH
OF ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL ASCENT THAT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND
LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION. AN ISOLATED SQUALL OR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ALONG THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS THE GREATER FORCING SHIFTS
EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, THE
LIKELIHOOD IS GREATLY LOWERED. NONETHELESS, SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING AS THE FRONT SEES ITS PASSAGE THROUGH TO COMPLETION. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED RAPIDLY BEHIND IT, HOWEVER, AS DRY
AIR AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION POSE HINDRANCE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
BERKSHIRES AS A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IS GENERATED FROM STRONG
CAA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS FAIRLY
STEEP. HOWEVER, AN OVER PERFORMANCE OF WIND GUSTS FROM WHAT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVER
VALLEYS, DOWNSLOPING OFF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES,
AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES WITH CLOUD COVER GREATLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT BEGINNING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RATHER COOL CONSIDERING THE COLD
ADVECTED REGIME. ANTICIPATE 20S AND 30S WITH 10S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL AND HIGH-ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TRANQUILITY DOES NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER
RESEMBLING THAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MORE OR LESS FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COURTESY OF
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN INDICATED THROUGH THE
LATEST CAMS AS TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKING TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF OR
JUST OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES, THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
SHIELD LOOKS TO EXIT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, STEADY SNOW WILL NOT YET BE OVER FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW
SQUALLS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT TOMORROW WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY THAN TODAY, STRONG AND MOIST VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN
THE PSEUDO WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF SNOW SQUALLS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW PERTAINING TO LOCATION AND TIMING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SNOW SQUALLS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES VERTICAL ASCENT. UPON
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH NORTH- NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, BANDS WILL BE ORIENTED FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, MAKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OWNED BY THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE 7 TO 11 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. HERE, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH UP THROUGH 5
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY IN THE FUTURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S. DESPITE THE
MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, SUFFICIENTLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL MITIGATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE
PRECIPITATION WILL END IN THE VALLEY AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO THE DIURNAL WARMING. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION
LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR PLAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ABOUT -5 TO 13 F EXPECTED. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL THEN
BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (50-70%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%).
- CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY (10-40%), GREATEST IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION.
DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A
WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY, BRINGING
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT, LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES (UP TO 40%)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION,
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME RANGE AND HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCORPORATED. MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD FREEZING RAIN
OCCUR WOULD BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IN ADDITION, SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE START ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90. PRECIPITATION
MAY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.
A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. THEN, A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW (>3" IN 24 HOURS)
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS (40-60%).
CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES AS SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH, WITH FRIDAY HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS, THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS AT NIGHT. COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SUNDAY
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S MONDAY.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12 UTC/WED...SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL RESULTING
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PSF FROM 13 TO 15
UTC THIS MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z/WED. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/WED, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE, STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT, THEN WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z/TUE, AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KT, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL VEER INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 35-45 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063-064-082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/SPECIALE
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