089
FXUS61 KALY 281805
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION TO
COMPLETION BY LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALL ACTIVITY QUICKLY CEASING BEHIND IT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
BRIEFLY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME LATER ON IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 45MPH. THEN,
WINDS GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO AFTERNOON SUN NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE
WAKE OF OUR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S IN PLACE THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. OUR WIND GUSTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NOW ONLY REACHING 35-40MPH (ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 45MPH) DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION,
WESTERN MA AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 4PM AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE, WE MAY CANCEL IT
EARLY. OTHERWISE, BETWEEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS, IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER THIS AFTERNOON...MORE LIKE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL AND HIGH-ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TRANQUILITY DOES NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BETTER
RESEMBLING THAT OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MORE OR LESS FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COURTESY OF
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN INDICATED THROUGH THE
LATEST CAMS AS TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKING TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF OR
JUST OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES, THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
SHIELD LOOKS TO EXIT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, STEADY SNOW WILL NOT YET BE OVER FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW
SQUALLS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT TOMORROW WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY THAN TODAY, STRONG AND MOIST VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN
THE PSEUDO WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF SNOW SQUALLS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW PERTAINING TO LOCATION AND TIMING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SNOW SQUALLS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES VERTICAL ASCENT. UPON
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH NORTH- NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, BANDS WILL BE ORIENTED FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, MAKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OWNED BY THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WHERE 7 TO 11 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. HERE, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH UP THROUGH 5
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY IN THE FUTURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S. DESPITE THE
MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, SUFFICIENTLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL MITIGATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE
PRECIPITATION WILL END IN THE VALLEY AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO THE DIURNAL WARMING. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION
LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR PLAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ABOUT -5 TO 13 F EXPECTED. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL THEN
BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (50-70%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%).
- CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY (10-40%), GREATEST IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION.
DISCUSSION:
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A
WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY, BRINGING
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DESPITE SOME WARMING ALOFT, LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES (UP TO 40%)
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION,
ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME RANGE AND HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCORPORATED. MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD FREEZING RAIN
OCCUR WOULD BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IN ADDITION, SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE START ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90. PRECIPITATION
MAY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.
A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. THEN, A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW (>3" IN 24 HOURS)
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS (40-60%).
CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES AS SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH, WITH FRIDAY HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS, THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS AT NIGHT. COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH SUNDAY
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18 UTC/WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD KALB, KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN 02Z-05Z/WED, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
ONLY ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SEEING ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW MY BECOME MODERATE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KALB AND KGFL
RESULTING IN LIFR CONDITIONS. STEADY SNOW ENDS ALL TAF SITES BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
BEGINS AGAIN TOWARDS 18Z.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AT KPOU AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KT, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-
40 KT. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE ALL SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN...RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058>061-063-064-082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SND
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