908
FXUS61 KALY 290213
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION WITH SNOW OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ENDING BEFORE
SUNRISE. THEN, WINDS TURN GUSTY AGAIN WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
SQUALLS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WESTWARD FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY TOMORROW WITH 30 TO 60% CONFIDENCE FOR
WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH. GUSTY WINDS CAN RESULT IN BLOWING
SNOW LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF CONFIDENCE IN WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH INCREASES, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SNOW SQUALLS TOMORROW LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON (11AM TO 6PM). BRIEF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND A FLASH FREEZE ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY SNOW
SQUALL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S QUICKLY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S. SUCH CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE OR
DURING THE P.M COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 910 PM EST, SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER THE
PAST HOUR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS IF IT HASN'T STARTED YET. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD PASS BY TO THE NORTH OR NOT BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS NEEDED TO REFLECT LATEST OBS. MOST AREAS HAVE NOW
REACHED THEIR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT REACHING
THE 20S AND 30S BY DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LATE AFTERNOON SUN GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING
AS A CLIPPER FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF ITS WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW INITIALLY REACHING OUR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK AREAS THIS EVENING (7 - 10PM)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT, NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS/WESTERN
MA REGIONS BY 10 - 1AM TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD TONIGHT
FALLING INTO THE TEENS SO SNOW WILL QUICKLY TURN ANY UNTREATED
SURFACES SLIPPERY. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET QUICKLY NOSES INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SO SNOW WILL LIKELY TURN
MODERATE AND STEADY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LIFT
INTERSECTING THE DGZ FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
FORCING IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND ONLY LAST FOR A SHORT-WINDOW
ON THE ORDER TO 3 TO 6 HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. IN FACT, MOST OF THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL END
BEFORE SUNRISE AND WE ONLY EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH 7 AM. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL UPSLOPE THE TERRAIN AND RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS. THE HREF EVEN SHOWS 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL
RATES TO EXCEED 1 INCH FROM AMOUNT 11PM THROUGH 5AM. THUS, WE
HAVE 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFTS EXITING INTO
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SUNRISE, SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY (EVENING STOPPING ALL TOGETHER IN VALLEY
AREAS) BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER, MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL
ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME TO ARRIVE AT THEIR DESTINATION GIVEN
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WHILE MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
TURN GUSTY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP
BOUNDARY MIXING ENSUING. WITH THE STRONG 30-45KTS LOW AND MID-
LEVEL STILL OVERHEAD, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED 10 -
20MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 - 40MPH. UP TO 45MPH IN THE
HILL TOWNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 45MPH, WE HELD OFF ON
A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. WE MAY ISSUE ONE IN FUTURE UPDATES IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FT AND
HIGHER. THE DEEP MIXING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME REACHING AROUND 40 IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SHORT- LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT
QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
THE INCOMING ARCTIC COLD FRONT RAISES CONCERNS FOR SNOW SQUALLS
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (11AM TO 6PM) AS SUFFICIENT
SFC BUOYANCY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (50 - 80 J/KG) WITH
SOME WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT SUPPORTING AREAS OF ENHANCED FGEN. DURING ANY SNOW SQUALL,
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND GUST BRIEFLY UP TO 40-45MPH. GIVEN TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE WED A.M, A FLASH FREEZE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE
FRONT WED AFTERNOON. WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE
ARCTIC FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
LATE WED P.M INTO WED EVENING WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATING
THE LAKE BANDS EXTEND FAR INLAND REACHING THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAN QUICKLY
PRODUCT UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOW. UPSLOPE SNOW ALSO
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WED EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
ONGOING WED EVENING REACHING UP TO 30-35MPH SO BLOWING SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT BUT SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN BY 06 - 12 UTC AS SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS OVER THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.
THEREFORE, WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE ALL SET TO
EXPIRE BY 06 UTC THURSDAY. IT WILL TURN COLD WED NIGHT AS WELL
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS.
ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO REACH 1 TO 3
INCHES IN VALLEY AREAS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
RENSSELAER PLATEAU, AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH 5 - 8 INCHES AND 6 - 12 INCHES, RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BUSY PATTERN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST GIVING US MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WEAKER WINDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD UNDER WESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S
EXCEPT IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHICH SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK. CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE. LUCKILY, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION (50-70%) BOTH ON FRIDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING P-TYPES FRIDAY, WITH
MAINLY RAIN OR SNOW EXPECTED, BUT LOW-END PROBABILITIES (UNDER 20%)
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
DISCUSSION:
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
MODELS, AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AS WELL.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PRECIPITATION EVENTS,
EXACT AMOUNTS AND TYPES REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH A SURFACE
LOW TRACKING NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREAS. AFTER A COLD START
TO THE DAY, TEMPS (BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE) SHOULD BE WARMING,
AND AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY ON SOUTHWARD WILL BE RATHER
MARGINAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER, AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THIS WARM AIR GETS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK.
THE 12Z GEFS SUGGEST A VARIETY OF P-TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH RAIN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ALL A POTENTIAL THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS RAIN OR
SNOW BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50%-70%
RANGE AT THIS TIME.
AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
SNOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS (4"+) OF SNOWFALL
(OVER 30% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z GEFS/EURO ENSEMBLES).
MEANWHILE, THERE LOOKS TO BE A LOWER POTENTIAL (UNDER 20%) FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW TO THE SOUTH, BUT AT LEAST A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE TAIL END OF THE END AS IT WINDS DOWN ON
FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A NARROW AREA
WHERE SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS IN TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE RAIN AND SNOW, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN, AS
THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIABILITY WITHIN THE MEMBERS
OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT FOR WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR.
IT SHOULD BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S, LOWS LOOK COLD ON SAT NIGHT, WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION FOR LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION.
WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE, P-TYPE WOULD MORE LIKELY BE SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACT AMOUNTS AND TIMING. MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE SHOWN SOME
CHANGES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA, AS THERE COULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL
NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL, THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIP FOR POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE FOR NOW, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
TO LOW 30S THROUGH THIS EVENT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT THIS TIME TO START
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH JUST BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE REGION. STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO KGFL, KALB AND KPSF BY 03Z-04Z, BRINGING FLYING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR WITHIN STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL. VISIBILITY
WILL BE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE. INITIALLY, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3 KFT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO AROUND 1-2 KFT BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, KPOU WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADY PRECIP. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO THERE FOR IFR CONDITIONS,
BUT MOST OF THE TIME, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
RANGE THERE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER BY 08Z-09Z OR SO FOR ALL SITES.
SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID- MORNING. ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CLIPPER'S COLD FRONT IN THE
14Z-18Z RANGE. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING OUT FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SNOW SQUALL ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ040>042-
047-054-058-063-083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-039-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...RATHBUN/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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