470
FXUS61 KALY 290904
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW SQUALLS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FRIDAY, THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS SW ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 4 AM EST, CLIPPER LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO
AND TRACKING EAST, WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL AND SE
NY. AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW QUICKLY STREAKED ACROSS REGION
OVERNIGHT, WITH LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING FOR AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH DAYBREAK.
BIGGEST STORY FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AMID SHARPENING PRESSURE RISES AND COLD
ADVECTION. LATEST BUFKIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
3KMNAM AND HRRR SUGGEST GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH FOR MANY
AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL-SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED CLOSE TO I-84 THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WITH
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM
FROM NW TO SE. SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY COULD HAVE
SOME RAIN OR GRAUPEL MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH TODAY, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SPIKE LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE BREAK INTO WARM
SECTOR OF CLIPPER SYSTEM. VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST COULD BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE 40S, WITH MID/UPPER 30S IN
VALLEYS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY. TEMPS MAY REMAIN COLDER, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN (40-60%) ACROSS MID
HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
FRIDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT. SOME EXTENSIONS OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AT TIMES. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TURNING
COLDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
SOME WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY DROP TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS, OTHERWISE GENERALLY
FAIR AND COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH/WEST, SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/LOWER
20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY, WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY
MORNING. DESPITE WARMING ALOFT, LOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN COLD AND
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING ONCE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FOR
MANY AREAS FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, A PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TOWARD OR AFTER SUNSET. OVERALL QPF LOOKS
TO BE 0.25-0,40", WITH MAIN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN BEING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LATEST LREF INDICATES 40-60% PROBS
FOR 24-HOUR ICE ACCRETION OF >0.01" ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, AND LOWER/MID 30S TO THE NORTH.
PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER WILL BE KEY, AS A QUICKER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
COULD ALLOW FOR GREATER ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, EXCEPT FOR SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A TRANQUIL WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE
MODESTLY ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST RIDGING ALOFT
SLIDES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND COURTESY OF TROUGHING,
THOUGH EXITING EASTWARD, REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANTICIPATE 10S TO 20S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 30S IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN DROP
WIDELY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LOW 10S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND ONE TO NEARLY 10 BELOW ZERO IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BEGIN THE BRIEF WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
CRESTING OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON THE HEELS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING
TO THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW.
AND, AS THIS IS A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCE, DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE REINFORCED REGIONWIDE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LATEST
ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PROBABILITY (5-30%) ACROSS THE REGION IN
ACCUMULATIONS MEETING/EXCEEDING 4" (ADVISORY-LEVEL CRITERIA), BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWIFTLY EXITS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES QUICKLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT
AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY PRECIPITATION ONSET MONDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE, WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO
REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW AND POCKETS OF MID 40S IN VALLEY
AREAS WITH LOW 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT TYPE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE RAIN WILL BE
COMMON IN LOWER-LYING AREAS. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ANYWAY, SO SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS TIME. AND THIS SYSTEM, TOO, WILL
BE SWIFT-MOVING, LEADING TO REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN TO BRING A
TRANQUIL END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE 10S TO 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 10S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS TO 20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FINALLY, TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF THIS MORNING AS STRATIFORM SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, ARE IN PLACE AT KPOU WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. GIVEN THE LATEST
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, SNOW COULD
BEGIN TO LIGHT UP AT KALB AND KPSF, SO TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED TO
SHOW POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AT 07Z. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY. CONVERSELY, TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN AT KGFL DUE TO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES AND AT KPOU DUE TO SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH THE
GROUND SO TEMPOS WERE ALSO INPUT BEGINNING AT 07Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE WORSENING OF CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW THIS
MORNING, STRATIFORM SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
REINFORCED ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 09-11Z. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
SWIFTLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR (KALB/KPOU) THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BEGIN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO START AT SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT.
AS THE MORNING CONTINUES, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 40 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THIS TIME, WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WIND
PROFILES INDICATE RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW, WHICH, GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST 1KM, COULD POSE
TURBULENCE ISSUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOW-
LEVEL TURBULENCE, ANOTHER CONCERN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY BETWEEN 16-21Z, IS ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. ANY SQUALLS OR HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
UP TO 45 KT AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS/SQUALLS THAT CROSS THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND A QUICK RETURN TO MVFR/VFR AT THEIR CONCLUSION.
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATEST TEMPORAL
WINDOW OF THESE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS IN THEIR EXACT LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ040>042-
047-054-058-063-083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-039-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR VTZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
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