821
FXUS61 KALY 291458
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW SQUALLS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FRIDAY, THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS SW ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
UPDATE...AS OF 9:55 AM EST
990 MB SFC LOW/CLIPPER IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF OUR REGION NEAR THE NY/VT/CANADA
BORDER. THE SYTEM'S WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS, WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
REMAINS LOCKED IN. GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE LOWERED AS MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT NYS
MESONET OBS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARDS (ALBEIT SLOWER THAN MODELED) THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, DAYTIME HIGHS IN THESE AREAS WERE ONLY BUMPED
DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 ARE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES HERE ARE WELL INTO THE 30S TO EVEN
LOW 40S WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER REMAINS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, WITH CURRENT RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM NOW THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 2" OF SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME SOME THUNDER, AND
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH ANY SQUALLS. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, SNOW COVERED ROADS, AND A FLASH FREEZE ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON, AND COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
DESPITE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE, KEY
MESSAGES AND OVERALL THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL
REMAIN ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS, INCLUDING ON
THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BIGGEST STORY FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AMID SHARPENING PRESSURE RISES AND COLD
ADVECTION. LATEST BUFKIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
3KMNAM AND HRRR SUGGEST GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH FOR MANY
AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL-SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN HIGHER
GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED CLOSE TO I-84 THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM
FROM NW TO SE. SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY COULD HAVE
SOME RAIN OR GRAUPEL MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH TODAY, WITH GENERALLY LESS ELSEWHERE.
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SPIKE LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE BREAK INTO WARM
SECTOR OF CLIPPER SYSTEM. VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST COULD BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE 40S, WITH MID/UPPER 30S IN
VALLEYS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY. TEMPS MAY REMAIN COLDER, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN (40-60%) ACROSS MID
HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
FRIDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TURNING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT. SOME EXTENSIONS OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AT TIMES. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TURNING
COLDER WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
SOME WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY DROP TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS, OTHERWISE GENERALLY
FAIR AND COLD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH/WEST, SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS PRODUCING MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/LOWER
20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY, WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY
MORNING. DESPITE WARMING ALOFT, LOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN COLD AND
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING ONCE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR FOR
MANY AREAS FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, A PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TOWARD OR AFTER SUNSET. OVERALL QPF LOOKS
TO BE 0.25-0,40", WITH MAIN IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN BEING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LATEST LREF INDICATES 40-60% PROBS
FOR 24-HOUR ICE ACCRETION OF >0.01" ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, AND LOWER/MID 30S TO THE NORTH.
PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
CHANGEOVER WILL BE KEY, AS A QUICKER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
COULD ALLOW FOR GREATER ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, EXCEPT FOR SOME SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A TRANQUIL WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE
MODESTLY ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST RIDGING ALOFT
SLIDES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND COURTESY OF TROUGHING,
THOUGH EXITING EASTWARD, REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANTICIPATE 10S TO 20S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 30S IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN DROP
WIDELY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LOW 10S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND ONE TO NEARLY 10 BELOW ZERO IN
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BEGIN THE BRIEF WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
CRESTING OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON THE HEELS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING
TO THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW.
AND, AS THIS IS A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCE, DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE REINFORCED REGIONWIDE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LATEST
ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PROBABILITY (5-30%) ACROSS THE REGION IN
ACCUMULATIONS MEETING/EXCEEDING 4" (ADVISORY-LEVEL CRITERIA), BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWIFTLY EXITS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES QUICKLY BEHIND IT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SURFACE LOW AS
IT TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT
AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY PRECIPITATION ONSET MONDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE, WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO
REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW AND POCKETS OF MID 40S IN VALLEY
AREAS WITH LOW 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT TYPE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE RAIN WILL BE
COMMON IN LOWER-LYING AREAS. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ANYWAY, SO SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS TIME. AND THIS SYSTEM, TOO, WILL
BE SWIFT-MOVING, LEADING TO REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN TO BRING A
TRANQUIL END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE 10S TO 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 10S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS TO 20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FINALLY, TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS (EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE AN MVFR CEILING PREVAILS),
THOUGH INCOMING SNOW SHOWERS THREATEN TO WORSEN CONDITIONS AT
KALB BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS (KALB/KGFL/KPSF)
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THESE SHOWERS/SQUALLS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
CERTAIN IN TERMS OF WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION BANDS TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS WILL BE SQUALLS OR SHOWERS, STRONG WINDS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALLS/SHOWERS
WILL FALL BETWEEN 16-21Z TODAY. HOWEVER, BRIEF TEMPOS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS
LOOKING TO IMPACT THEM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. WHILE KPOU IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO EXPERIENCE ANY
SQUALLS, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY HERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THESE ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18-20Z.
OUTSIDE OF SQUALLS/SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR EXCEPT
AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN HERE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, MAXIMIZING BETWEEN 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS WILL
REACH UP TO 40 TO POSSIBLY 55 MPH AT TIMES. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BEGIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, BUT GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063>066-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ040>042-
047-054-058-063-083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-039-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MAIN
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page