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FXUS61 KALY 092332
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
AND THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO OPEN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY
COLD FRONT FOR THE MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW BRINGS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 715 PM EDT...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEW GUIDANCE W.R.T. INCOMING CLIPPER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO QPF OR SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A COATING TO AROUND 3", WITH THE
HIGHER END OF AMOUNTS FAVORED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADKS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (359 PM]...A CLIPPER LIKE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS APPROACHING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS CLIPPER
HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AND HAS BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THE
WARM ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE WAVE FOR THICKENING AND LOWER CLOUDS. SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR EARLY ON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION FOR A DROP OFF IN TEMPS.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT NORTH OF I-90 AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AND ITS WARM FRONT. THE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
PARK INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
RANGE IN THESE AREAS. WE ONLY INCLUDED 15-25% POPS DOWN TO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/MOHAWK VALLEY/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES FOR A DUSTING
TO MAYBE A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW. EXPECT 1-3" IN THE SOUTHERN
DACKS WITH A COATING TO INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND A FEW INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW (30-50%) ARE THE GREATEST
NORTH OF ROUTE 28 AND OLD FORGE IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS. THE SNOW
SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAY BREAK WITH THE
CLIPPER MOVING EAST OF MAINE.
LOWS TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISE THEREAFTER IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. WE
BLENDED THE MET/MAV/NBM GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30F IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
RETURNING
- MAX TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE A COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
TOMORROW...WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS
WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND SHORT-WAVE. THE
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH
IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY BECOME
LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM WV/VA. DOWNSLOPING
COMBINED WITH SOME MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN
INVERSION SETS UP ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
DECREASING WINDS. TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE MTNS. THE HILLS AND
VALLEYS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS
WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT.
FLAT MID AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT WITH A SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM EAST OF NJ AND LONG ISLAND. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY OCCUR EARLY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER NIGHT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. LOWS FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE LAST NOVEMBER 11TH. ALBANY
LAST REACHED 60+ DEGREES THAT DAY. H850 TEMPS RISE +1 TO +2
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS WITH THE ACTUAL H850
TEMPS +4C TO +6C. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 60+ DEGREE
MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 60-80% RANGE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE OCCURRING ALOFT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 MPH. SOME SNOW MELT MAY OCCUR AND SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE. SEE THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS WILL BE 60-65F IN AND NEAR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
MOHAWK VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE TACONICS. MID AND UPPER IN MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS, EXCEPT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN
DACKS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WITH MEAGER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. A DECENT PUSH OF
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR. LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S EXCEPT SOME TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. THE BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER PA AND NJ OR
SO. A 1025 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH LATE. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER EC
MOS/NBM COMING IN WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHERN VT, AND MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
NW CT AND SOUTHERN TACONICS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60% CHANCE) OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE REGION WED EVENING, WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO THU. A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT AND THU. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES (BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE). AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI, WARMER AIR BOTH IN THE LOW
LEVEL AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN. SO TEMPERTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S). DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON SAT, AS A STRONG CYCLONE
EMERGES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV) MOVING IN. HIGHS COULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUN. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE (40-60% PROB FROM NBM) FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF
> 1" DUE TO STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (PWAT +2 TO
+3 STDEV). SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GET QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HYDRO PROBLEMS POTENTIALLY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY TO KGFL THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. HERE, A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR THIS TAF WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF A DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AT KALB/KPSF,
BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS TONIGHT,
WITH AN INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
BY DAYBREAK. THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH A PASSING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF
35-45 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL RISE TONIGHT TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY WITH A CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-90. THE MIN RH VALUES
WILL BE 25-35% IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND 35-60% ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10-15 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE DECREASE. MAX GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 MPH
WITH A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE TO 70-90 PERCENT TUESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE 35-45% AND WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE WARMER TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SPECK/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SPECK
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
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