183
FXUS61 KALY 121745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND WET SNOW THIS MORNING TAPERS TO RAIN SHOWERS AS A
COASTAL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS UP THE COAST. WHILE THE HIGHEST WET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRE
COUNTY, LITCHFIELD HILLS, NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
TACONICS, EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE COATINGS UP TO 2 INCHES,
INCLUDING THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...AS OF 145 PM EDT
THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AROUND NOON DUE TO MOST TEMPERATURES
HAVING SURPASSED FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THE COASTAL LOW HAS
MADE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTH AND EASTWARD, REMAINING JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE DRY SLOT HAS THEREFORE SPREAD FARTHER
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH IS SHOWN
QUITE WELL ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, WITH
SNOW ONLY LEFT OVER IN ULSTER COUNTY WHERE A FEW LINGERING
POINTS HAVE YET TO EXCEED OR HAVE JUST EXCEEDED FREEZING.
THEREFORE, WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING RELATIVELY ON TRACK, FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE OUTSIDE OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MANY ARE WAKING UP TO WET SNOW THIS MORNING
AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION FROM OUR COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO
ROTATE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES,
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS DEPENDENT ON PRECIP INTENSITY WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY WET SNOW BUT
MIXING BACK WITH RAIN AS IT LIGHTENS UP. LATEST ENX RADAR TRENDS
SHOW A SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FGEN
ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS OUR COASTAL LOW
SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE QUICK INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
WET- BULBING AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES RESULTED IN A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO RATHER LARGE WET SNOW FLAKES WITH A COATING OF
WET SNOW HERE AT THE NWS ALBANY OFFICE QUICKLY ACCUMULATING ON
THE GRASS OVER THE LAST HOUR. ROADS REMAIN WET BUT EVEN A
COATING ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF THE
BAND AND HEAVY SNOW PERSISTS. REGARDLESS OF ACCUMULATIONS,
VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED AND MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IMPACTED AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT INCLUDING WESTERN MA, THE TACONICS, THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. GIVEN WET SNOW FALLING
OVERNIGHT, ACCUMULATIONS RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER COCORAHS
AND NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS PLUS CAMERA IMAGES FROM THE NY
THRUWAY AND MASS PIKE SHOWING SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS AND WESTERN MA.
WIDESPREAD WET SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT THE COMBINATION
OF DAYLIGHT, SLOWLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW BANDS
WEAKENING WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING BACK TO
PLAIN RAIN MID TO LATE MORNING INITIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS BEFORE
TRENDING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
THE CYCLONE'S DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
THIS MORNING, SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR BUT GIVEN
WET SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND, IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH/WEST
OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR THE SNOW BANDS TO REACH AND THUS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST COATINGS TO A FEW
TENTHS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR BY MID-
MORNING WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, LITCHFIELD HILLS, THE
TACONICS, THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT. EVEN COATINGS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WE CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS BUT GIVEN THIS EVENT IS OCCURRING INTO A WEEKEND AND
THAT THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES,
OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE LOW SO WE HELD OFF. DURING ANY HEAVIER
PERIODS OF WET SNOW, EVEN PAVED SURFACES COULD BECOME SLUSHY
INCLUDING IN VALLEY AREAS.
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR
COASTAL LOW WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING A BIT BREEZY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF OUR SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25KTS.
WITH OUR NEARLY FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT, CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN WITH A FEW LINGERING
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND MOISTURE FROM OUR COASTAL CONTINUES OVERHEAD. LITTLE
TEMPERATURE VARIATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT,
BERKSHIRES, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
FREEZING WHERE A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE IN PLACE. SHOULD ANY
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARDS FREEZING, SOME ICY
SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILDER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY
BEFORE A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY RETURNS (50 TO 70%) MONDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
OUR SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH CONTINUE EXITING TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUN
AS RIDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY TURN MORE SEASONABLE THANKS TO
INCREASED AFTERNOON SUN SUPPORTING RELATIVE DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S IN VALLEY AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HILL
TOWNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS ALSO TURN LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
PLEASANT WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING
AND SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. WITH A MILDER AIR MASS ALSO SPILLING
INTO THE REGION (850 HPA ISOTHERMS +5C TO +7C) AS WELL, OUR
STRETCH OF CHILLY AND RATHER GLOOMY APRIL WEATHER BREAKS WITH
HIGH TEMPERTURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. MID-60S
FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BECOME FILTERED
BEHIND INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A COMPACT AND CLOSED LOW TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO OVERSPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST AS ITS MID-LEVEL JET
WITHIN THE WARM NOSE IMPINGES INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN ORGANIZED YET FAST MOVING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S, EXPECTING ALL
RAIN. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.20" AND
MOST EXITS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST FORCING EXITS TO OUR EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-
DISCUSSION:
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK UPON HAVING SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF ITS PRIMARY COLD
FRONT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES ITS SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TO
START TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60 WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, WITH LOWS REACHING THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE AND CYCLONICALLY-
FORCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, RAIN, OR A MIX
THEREOF.
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. ADDITIONAL HIGH-ELEVATION, UPSLOPE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CAN THEREFORE BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN LARGER VALLEYS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERTOP HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE 40S AND 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND THEN LOOK TO HOLD THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND APPROACH THE REGION. RAIN WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MID/UPPER 40S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS BEFORE LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENDED, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT SOME MVFR
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF MIST/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AT
KALB/KPOU. CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF AND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPOU BUT CIGS MAY ALSO OCCASIONALLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR
RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS COULD OCCUR.
WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KPSF, SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN/SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...GANT/RATHBUN/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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