687
FXUS61 KALY 122005
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND MONDAY AS
THE COASTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION DEPARTS.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE RETURN TO WET WEATHER TUESDAY AND PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SINCE LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JUST
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD AND CONTINUING TO EXPAND EAST AND WEST FARTHER ACROSS
THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE NYS MESONET AND LOCAL METAR OBS,
THE ONLY PLACES THAT HAVE NOT WARMED PASSED FREEZING ARE
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS IN ULSTER AND GREENE
COUNTIES. HERE, ACCORDING TO THE KENX RADAR, A BATCH OF SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN SPATIAL COVERAGE AS IT TRIES TO
EXIT TO THE WEST. THE CAMERAS AT CLARYVILLE AND TANNERSVILLE
SHOW LIGHT SNOW WITH 1-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.5".
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO UNTIL IT
FULLY EXITS WILL ALSO BE MINIMAL. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MOST
PART WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALLOWING THE RESPONSIBLE BAND OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO CONTINUE ITS DEPARTURE
WESTWARD.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT, THE
COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALMOST DUE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH A FEW COULD LINGER INTO
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD AND THE LOWER MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, AS CYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS MOISTURE RELATIVELY CLOSE. BUT,
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REINFORCED
REGIONWIDE AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AND ITS
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PROMINENT
OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE MAINTAINED BY AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLONIC FLOW SO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL PRIMARILY
TO THE 30S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 20S POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATIONS EXCEEDING 1000 FT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH, DEEPER INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL OUT OF REACH SUCH THAT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IS MITIGATED, BUT A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IF THE LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, THOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED AS
THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH ALOFT MOVE FARTHER OFF THE
COAST TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL THEREFORE REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE, THOUGH
CERTAINLY MORE MILD THAN TODAY WITH MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
POCKETS OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ABOVE 1500 FT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN, MONDAY WILL
FINALLY BE A DAY TO SEE THE SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILD FULLY IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE MID- APRIL, ACTUALLY JUST ABOVE MID-
APRIL STANDARDS, WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. HOWEVER, DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING. BY MONDAY EVENING, A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TRACKED JUST OVERHEAD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AND
ATTENDANT WARM AND COLD FRONTS. AHEAD AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF
RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY
EVENING. BEING IN THE DIVERGENT ZONE OF THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET, ENHANCED LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS BUT THERE ARE NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SWIFTLY ON ITS HEELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S SO NO SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET
OF THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING WARMER, MORE SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION:
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK UPON HAVING SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF ITS PRIMARY COLD
FRONT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES ITS SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TO
START TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60 WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, WITH LOWS REACHING THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE AND CYCLONICALLY-
FORCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, RAIN, OR A MIX
THEREOF.
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. ADDITIONAL HIGH-ELEVATION, UPSLOPE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CAN THEREFORE BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN LARGER VALLEYS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERTOP HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE 40S AND 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND THEN LOOK TO HOLD THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND APPROACH THE REGION. RAIN WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MID/UPPER 40S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS BEFORE LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENDED, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT SOME MVFR
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF MIST/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AT
KALB/KPOU. CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF AND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT KPOU BUT CIGS MAY ALSO OCCASIONALLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR
RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS COULD OCCUR.
WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KPSF, SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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