537
FXUS61 KALY 130622
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
222 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON SUN WITH TEMPERATURES
TURNING MILD. PLEASANT AND MILD SPRING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
BEFORE AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AS OUR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH OUR SFC LOW SLOWLY
SPINNING OFF SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FORCING AND THUS
HIGHER SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE HUDSON. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY
STILL AROUND FREEZING, WE EXTENDED OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 6 AM. OTHERWISE, CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES VARIATION TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AS OUR
SFC LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY 18 - 21
UTC, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY STARTS TO
BUILD EASTWARD ALLOWING DRY AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS AND LEAD TO BREAKS OF SUN. AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL SEE THE BREAKS OF SUN FIRST BEFORE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST FINALLY GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN TOWARDS
AND AFTER 21 UTC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 TO 50% CHANCE
FOR SFC TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-50S IN VALLEY AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THANKS TO INCREASED INSOLATION, SFC
WINDS TURNING A BIT BREEZY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS AND
MILDER 850HPA ISOTHERMS SPILL OVERHEAD. GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE
DAY CLOUDS BREAK FOR SUN, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WE
DID NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH
ALREADY SHOW MUCH OF THE REGION RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
WHICH LEANS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE PROBABILISTIC SPECTRUM.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN, MONDAY WILL
FINALLY BE A DAY TO SEE THE SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILD FULLY IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE MID- APRIL, ACTUALLY JUST ABOVE MID-
APRIL STANDARDS, WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. HOWEVER, DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING. BY MONDAY EVENING, A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TRACKED JUST OVERHEAD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AND
ATTENDANT WARM AND COLD FRONTS. AHEAD AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF
RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY
EVENING. BEING IN THE DIVERGENT ZONE OF THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET, ENHANCED LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS BUT THERE ARE NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT SWIFTLY ON ITS HEELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S SO NO SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET
OF THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING WARMER, MORE SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION:
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NEW YORK UPON HAVING SETTLED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF ITS PRIMARY COLD
FRONT BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES ITS SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TO
START TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60 WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, WITH LOWS REACHING THE UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE AND CYCLONICALLY-
FORCED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, RAIN, OR A MIX
THEREOF.
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. ADDITIONAL HIGH-ELEVATION, UPSLOPE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CAN THEREFORE BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS AND MID TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN LARGER VALLEYS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERTOP HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A WARMING TREND. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL REACH THE 40S AND 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND THEN LOOK TO HOLD THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND APPROACH THE REGION. RAIN WILL SUBSEQUENTLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MID/UPPER 40S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS BEFORE LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE NOW MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 1:05 AM EDT WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1200 AND 3000 FT. EXPECTING
MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS BELOW 2000 FT LIKELY FROM 8-9Z
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME PATCHY
LOW STRATUS BORDERING ON IFR LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND AND JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT PSF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2000-3000 EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING
BACK TO VFR LEVELS. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE
N/NW EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
AFTER SUNSET, GUSTS SUBSIDE AND WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT FROM
THE NW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...MAIN
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