764
FXUS61 KALY 131052
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON SUN WITH TEMPERATURES
TURNING MILD. PLEASANT AND MILD SPRING TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
BEFORE AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM EDT, YET ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL MORNING GREETS
THE DAY ON THIS SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID-30S TO AROUND 40. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS BLOSSOMING OVER THE
HELDERBERGS INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY LIKELY DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS UPSLOPING THE TERRIAN. THE FV3 SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY HIGH
RES MODEL CAPUTURING THIS AND SHOWS SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY 12
UTC. INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE, LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR WESTWARDLY TILTED COASTAL LOW STILL WELL
SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS, STILL EXPECTING THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HREF STILL SUPPORTS BEFORE BREAKS OF SUN FINALLY
POKE THROUGH BY 18 - 21 UTC, MORE SO AFTER 21 UTC. MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON AS OUR SFC LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY 18 - 21 UTC, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD ALLOWING DRY
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS
AND LEAD TO BREAKS OF SUN. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL
SEE THE BREAKS OF SUN FIRST BEFORE AREAS ALONG AND EAST FINALLY
GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN TOWARDS AND AFTER 21 UTC.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR SFC
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-50S IN VALLEY AREAS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THANKS TO INCREASED INSOLATION, SFC WINDS TURNING
A BIT BREEZY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS AND MILDER 850HPA
ISOTHERMS SPILL OVERHEAD. GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS
BREAK FOR SUN, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WE DID NOT
STRAY FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH ALREADY SHOW
MUCH OF THE REGION RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WHICH LEANS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE PROBABILISTIC SPECTRUM.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILDER, SPRING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY GIVING US
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE A PERIOD OF RAIN OCCURS MONDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
AND BREEZY WINDS. TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THOSE SEEKING A BREAK FROM THE STRING OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
WILL FINALLY SEE IMPROVEMENTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER AND MORE FITTING FOR MID-APRIL.
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES AS IT BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY GIVING US VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. EXPECT
MORNING SUN TO GRADUALLY FADE BEHIND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN A MILDER AIR
MASS WITH 850HPA ISOTHERMS RISING TO +4C TO +7C. WHEN COMBINED
WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SHOWING GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SKIES TURN CLOUDY IN RESPONSE TO A
SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A
POTENT CUT-OFF LOW SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE MID AND
UPPER FORCING APPEAR RATHER STRONG, THE LOW IS ALREADY
MATURE AND THE WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS FAST MOVING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
THUS, THE PERIOD OF INCOMING RAIN ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN AS
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RAIN ENDS BEFORE 12 UTC TUESDAY.
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS WE
ENTER INTO THE PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED/CLOSED LOW
POSITIONED IN SOUTHERN CANADA. WESTERLY WINDS TURN BREEZY
SUPPORTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND WITH 850HPA
ISOTHERMS STILL RELATIVELY MILD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY WARM
WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (MID-60S IN THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY) ALTHOUGH FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF MONDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT GUSTING UP TO
25 - 35MPH WITH THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BY 18 UTC TUES - 00 UTC WED. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IN ITS
WAKE TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUPPORT
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INDUCE A LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS WESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE
LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LOOK TO
EXTEND WELL INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS
POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, DEPENDING ON THE
INLAND EXTENSION. WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING QUITE CHILLY
TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING WARMER, MORE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH UPPER TROUGHING AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT CENTERED OVER OR JUST EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US IN
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THE RESULT
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ADKS WHERE
THERE WILL BE ENHANCEMENT BOTH FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND NW UPSLOPING.
HERE, AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN GREENS WILL ALSO SEE ENHANCED COVERAGE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THINGS
SHOULD TREND DRIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOL AND
QUITE BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS). LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 20S (TERRAIN) TO 30S (VALLEYS).
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION
THURSDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PROMOTE MORE CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A
MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER ALBEIT STILL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO 50S
(VALLEYS). WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING TO OUR WEST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST, IT REMAINS BREEZY AS WELL THURSDAY, BUT
WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY THE EVENING. WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT, FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S
AGAIN. FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MODERATE, SO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. MOST OF FRIDAY REMAINS DRY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING,
ALTHOUGH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OR AN UPPER LOW MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CANADA, AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS AROUND THE BASE
OF THIS FEATURE TOWARDS OUR REGION. THERE REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE THE
HIGHEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE WARM,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME LOW 70S AREN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION. FOR DAYS 8-14, THE CPC IS LEANING TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LEANING TOWARDS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AS OF 6:10 MA EDT WITH
CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND ALB. EXPECTING ANY POCKETS OF
IFR TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AND FROM THAT POINT
FORWARDS MOSTLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z. SOME FUEL
ALTERNATE CIGS BELOW 2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CIGS RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FOG/MIST CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT TONIGHT, BUT WITH
PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 20% WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE N/NW BY MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT CONTINUING FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, AND WINDS DROP BACK TO 5-8 KT FROM THE
W/NW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...GANT/MAIN
AVIATION...MAIN
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