144
FXUS61 KALY 131739
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY'S DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TOMORROW WITH
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON PAIRED WITH MORE APRIL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE REGIONWIDE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION. LINGERING HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...AS OF 1:39 PM EDT
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY TO
COMPLETELY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS COURTESY OF INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW THAT
HAS TRACKED FARTHER EASTWARD FROM THE COAST OF CAPE COD. AS
SUCH, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SOME AREAS
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
ALL ELSE REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON AS OUR SFC LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY 18 - 21 UTC, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD ALLOWING DRY
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS
AND LEAD TO BREAKS OF SUN. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WILL
SEE THE BREAKS OF SUN FIRST BEFORE AREAS ALONG AND EAST FINALLY
GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUN TOWARDS AND AFTER 21 UTC.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR SFC
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-50S IN VALLEY AREAS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THANKS TO INCREASED INSOLATION, SFC WINDS TURNING
A BIT BREEZY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS AND MILDER 850HPA
ISOTHERMS SPILL OVERHEAD. GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS
BREAK FOR SUN, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WE DID NOT
STRAY FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH ALREADY SHOW
MUCH OF THE REGION RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WHICH LEANS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE PROBABILISTIC SPECTRUM.
SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 20S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILDER, SPRING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY GIVING US
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE A PERIOD OF RAIN OCCURS MONDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
AND BREEZY WINDS. TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THOSE SEEKING A BREAK FROM THE STRING OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER
WILL FINALLY SEE IMPROVEMENTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER AND MORE FITTING FOR MID-APRIL.
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES AS IT BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY GIVING US VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. EXPECT
MORNING SUN TO GRADUALLY FADE BEHIND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN A MILDER AIR
MASS WITH 850HPA ISOTHERMS RISING TO +4C TO +7C. WHEN COMBINED
WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SHOWING GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SKIES TURN CLOUDY IN RESPONSE TO A
SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A
POTENT CUT-OFF LOW SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE MID AND
UPPER FORCING APPEAR RATHER STRONG, THE LOW IS ALREADY
MATURE AND THE WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS FAST MOVING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.
THUS, THE PERIOD OF INCOMING RAIN ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN AS
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RAIN ENDS BEFORE 12 UTC TUESDAY.
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS WE
ENTER INTO THE PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDED/CLOSED LOW
POSITIONED IN SOUTHERN CANADA. WESTERLY WINDS TURN BREEZY
SUPPORTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND WITH 850HPA
ISOTHERMS STILL RELATIVELY MILD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY WARM
WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (MID-60S IN THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY) ALTHOUGH FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF MONDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT GUSTING UP TO
25 - 35MPH WITH THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BY 18 UTC TUES - 00 UTC WED. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IN ITS
WAKE TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUPPORT
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INDUCE A LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS WESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE
LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LOOK TO
EXTEND WELL INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS
POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, DEPENDING ON THE
INLAND EXTENSION. WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING QUITE CHILLY
TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, MAKING FARTHER
PROGRESS TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS DRAPED
OVERHEAD ALOFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING
SUPPORTING LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID/UPPER 30S, SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY. BUT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEPART TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD SUCH THAT UPPER-
LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BEGIN TO
BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. AS SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED
REGION-WIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES AND RIDGING ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S TO LOW AND
POSSIBLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S BEFORE HIGHS
FRIDAY MODERATE TO THE 50S AND 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S AT AND
ABOVE 2000 FT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AS OUR
NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS POINTS TO A SURFACE LOW
JUTTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION,
EXTENDING AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING/VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT PASSES AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT SWIFTLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL STRICTLY BE RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. AND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY RISE INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
SITES BY THIS EVENING (KPSF THE LAST TO TREND BACK TO VFR). VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING ON MONDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4-8 KT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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