805
FXUS61 KALY 132327
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY'S DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TOMORROW WITH BREAKS OF SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON PAIRED WITH MORE APRIL-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE REGIONWIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION. LINGERING HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. TRANQUIL
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION[0404]
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF CAPE COD HAS AMPLIFIED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THOUGH WE REMAIN GENERALLY WITHIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND REAR FLANK OF ITS
ASSOCIATED, EASTWARD- DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT, VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE FORM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN THE FACE OF THE EASTWARD BUILDING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
ALSO ALLOWED DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO THE REGION AS SHOWN ON
LATEST WATER VAPOR SCANS, FURTHER AIDING THE EROSION DESPITE
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BREAKS IN SKY COVERAGE
HAVE LED TO TEMPERATURES RISING PRIMARILY INTO THE 50S ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POCKETS OF MID TO UPPER 40S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE DENSE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RETREATS FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
BEFORE JUTTING EASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING THE
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND ITS ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO TAKE
HOLD OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LEADING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW
TEMPERATURES SUBSEQUENTLY DROPPING TO THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE 1000 FT IN ELEVATION. AND THOUGH THE
GROUND HAS BEEN RECENTLY SATURATED, A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY WILL FINALLY FEEL LIKE A NICE, SPRING DAY WITH MUCH
ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MORE ALIGNED WITH MID-
APRIL STANDARDS. ACTUALLY, WE WILL PROBABLY RISE JUST ABOVE
NORMAL FOR APRIL 14TH COURTESY OF THE RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD,
850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND +4C TO +6C, AND DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. HIGHS WILL THEREFORE BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN LARGE VALLEY
AREAS. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST, HOWEVER, INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE REGIONWIDE LATE IN THE EVENING.
BY MONDAY EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
SITUATED JUST OVERHEAD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND BEGIN
TO OCCLUDE. HOWEVER, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA
OF SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION MORE OR LESS FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING, AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, BY LATE MONDAY
EVENING. LATEST CAMS DIFFER A BIT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE
SPATIAL SPREAD OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME, LIKELY DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR RESOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION REACHES OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE
DIVERGENT ZONE OF THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO ALLOW ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SUCH
THAT MUCH OF THE REGION IS AT LEAST DAMPENED OVERNIGHT. THAT
SAID, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S
TO 40S MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL BE
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THIS BEING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING, PLACING US IN A
PSEUDO WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE,
BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. AND
WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY INDICATED ON LATEST
CAMS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS GENERALLY FAIRLY LOW ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE EXTENT TO WHICH RADIATION WILL BE HINDERED BY
CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO 50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH THE LOW TRACKING
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT, MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE, GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S, WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW (HIGHER ELEVATIONS), RAIN (VALLEYS), OR A
MIX THEREOF. SUCH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO GENERALLY FALL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA (4") SO LITTLE
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. QPF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
EVENT LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.1" TO 0.3" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS OF CLOSE TO 0.5" IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
POST ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY CHILLY WITH MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S
TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL THEN FALL TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, MAKING FARTHER
PROGRESS TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS DRAPED
OVERHEAD ALOFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING
SUPPORTING LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID/UPPER 30S, SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY. BUT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEPART TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD SUCH THAT UPPER-
LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BEGIN TO
BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. AS SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED
REGION-WIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES AND RIDGING ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S TO LOW AND
POSSIBLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S BEFORE HIGHS
FRIDAY MODERATE TO THE 50S AND 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S AT AND
ABOVE 2000 FT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AS OUR
NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS POINTS TO A SURFACE LOW
JUTTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION,
EXTENDING AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING/VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT PASSES AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT SWIFTLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL STRICTLY BE RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. AND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY RISE INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND
6-11 KT THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 6 KT
OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
NEAR TERM...GANT/JPV
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...JPV
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