089
FXUS61 KALY 140635
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
235 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TRACKS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WHILE TOMORROW STARTS OFF MILD, A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND AREAS OF RAIN AND EVEN HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. COOL AND WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN
75% CHANCE) FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH ONLY FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
FINALLY, WE WILL ENJOY A VERY PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SUN FILTERED
THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AS SOME MOISTURE SPILLS OVERTOP THE RIDGE
AXIS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850HPA.
WITH A MILDER AIR MASS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND 850HPA ISOTHERMS
WARMING TO +4C TO +6C, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN
75% CHANCE FOR SFC TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY) TO
EXCEED 60 DEGREES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AS A SURGE OF WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. OVERALL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THUS TOTAL EXPECT QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED
DOWNWARDS. THIS TREND IS ALSO LIKELY LINKED TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FOR A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION MAY "STEAL"
SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE TRACKED INTO OUR
AREA. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH
OR SO. LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE TONIGHT BUT INCLUDED LIKELY IN THE
MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE THE MORE
ORGANIZE AREA OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTH COULD GRAZE. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THIS BEING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, THE OCCLUDED FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING, PLACING US IN A
PSEUDO WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE,
BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. AND
WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY INDICATED ON LATEST
CAMS, THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS GENERALLY FAIRLY LOW ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE EXTENT TO WHICH RADIATION WILL BE HINDERED BY
CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO 50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY.
TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH THE LOW TRACKING
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT, MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE, GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S, WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW (HIGHER ELEVATIONS), RAIN (VALLEYS), OR A
MIX THEREOF. SUCH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO GENERALLY FALL UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA (4") SO LITTLE
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. QPF THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
EVENT LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.1" TO 0.3" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS OF CLOSE TO 0.5" IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
POST ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY CHILLY WITH MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S
TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL THEN FALL TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, MAKING FARTHER
PROGRESS TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS DRAPED
OVERHEAD ALOFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING
SUPPORTING LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID/UPPER 30S, SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY. BUT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEPART TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD SUCH THAT UPPER-
LEVEL, SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BEGIN TO
BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. AS SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE REINFORCED
REGION-WIDE BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES AND RIDGING ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S TO LOW AND
POSSIBLY MID 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID-APRIL STANDARDS WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S BEFORE HIGHS
FRIDAY MODERATE TO THE 50S AND 60S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 40S AT AND
ABOVE 2000 FT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AS OUR
NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A LITTLE
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT TIMING OF
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS POINTS TO A SURFACE LOW
JUTTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION,
EXTENDING AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY EVENING/VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT PASSES AND THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT SWIFTLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL STRICTLY BE RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. AND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY RISE INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 1:05 AM EDT, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST AT GFL UP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, THEN LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, JUST
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA, A
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT AT 2000 FT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD NOW THROUGH AROUND 10Z. OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...MAIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page