076
FXUS61 KALY 141347
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BEFORE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TRACKS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WHILE TOMORROW STARTS OFF MILD, A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS,
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND AREAS OF RAIN AND EVEN HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. COOL AND WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PLEASANT SPRING DAY TODAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN
75% CHANCE) FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH ONLY FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 945 AM EDT, MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WAS
APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL NYS AND NE PA, ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS
AND SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
EAST, HOWEVER SHOULD GRADUALLY OUTRUN SUPPORT (LOW/MID LEVEL JET
AND STRONGER AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT). WE THEREFORE EXPECT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS TO DECREASE BY THE TIME
THIS BAND REACHES EASTER NY, HOWEVER WILL ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED SPRINKLES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER IN CASE
SOME SPRINKLES OCCUR FROM THINNING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
SO, HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND NUDGED CLOUD COVER UP A BIT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
[PREVIOUS]...FINALLY, WE WILL ENJOY A VERY PLEASANT SPRING DAY
TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SUN
FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AS SOME MOISTURE SPILLS OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AXIS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING EXTENDS UP TO AROUND
850HPA. WITH A MILDER AIR MASS TRACKING OVERHEAD AND 850HPA
ISOTHERMS WARMING TO +4C TO +6C, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR SFC TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEY) TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AS A SURGE OF WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. OVERALL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THUS TOTAL EXPECT QPF HAS ALSO TRENDED
DOWNWARDS. THIS TREND IS ALSO LIKELY LINKED TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE FOR A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION MAY "STEAL"
SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE TRACKED INTO OUR
AREA. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH
OR SO. LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE TONIGHT BUT INCLUDED LIKELY IN THE
MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE THE MORE
ORGANIZE AREA OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTH COULD GRAZE. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO 40% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT
INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
- A LONG DURATION OF UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IS
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. IF CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES
INCREASES, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION:
TUESDAY STARTS OFF MILD AS THE PSEUDO WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY NOSES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES
SPIKING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOW 60S IN THE VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE WARMTH IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD, SENDING ITS STRONG
SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS SURGE TOWARDS 50 WITHIN THE
MILD AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREAKS OF MORNING SUN
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK MUCAPE VALUES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
QUICKLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING 850
TO 700HPA LAPSE REACHING 7.5-8C/KM, WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY EASTWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WESTERN MA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DECREASE AND WESTERLY WINDS TURN QUITE
GUSTY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWINGS GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30
TO 35MPH (STRONGEST DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT
INTO WESTERN MA). IN ADDITION, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TURNING
TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUES
AFTERNOON INTO TUES EVENING RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVEN GUSTIER WESTERLY WINDS REACHING UP
TO 30 - 40 MPH OVERNIGHT (STRONGEST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS). SHOWERS BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS THANKS TO CONTINUED STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND
STRONG WINDS ADVECTING LAKE MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY REACH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (4 INCHES OR MORE) HERE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR QPF AND SNOW AMOUNT TRENDS AND EVALUATE THE
NEED FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. WHILE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN GREENS TUES NIGHT, LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO ALSO DIRECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, TACONICS AND
WESTERN MA OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (COATINGS TO LESS THAN AN INCH) FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THESE AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS OUR CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MIDWEST AS THE CUT-OFF LOW EXITS, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST TIGHTENS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING 40-45KTS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS DOWN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WESTERN MA TO
EXCEED 30MPH AND EVEN 25 - 50% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 35MPH.
THUS, WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND EVALUATE IF A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED; HOWEVER, RATHER CLOUDY SKIES COULD KEEP WINDS
UNDER THE 46MPH THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APRIL SUN BECOMES MORE
OF A FACTOR. DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-APRIL LIKELY STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE 40S. THE
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.
COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TREND DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. CONSIDERING
THE 24 - 36 HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN CHIMNEY OF HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENTS COME INTO PLAY. UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS MAINLY
IN THE 1 TO 2 RANGE DURING THE PERIOD, MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. OTHERWISE,
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES TURN CHILLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION: LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
TROUGHING WILL BE DEPARTING OFF TO OUR EAST, WITH UPPER RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
AND A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 40S (TERRAIN) TO 50S (VALLEYS). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL
TO OUR WEST THURSDAY, SO WE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH W/NW
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. FRIDAY REMAINS MOSTLY, BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS AS WE GET INTO MORE LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGHING TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, THEN TRACKING NORTH OF OUR REGION
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARDS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW AND MID-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS
WHERE THERE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TENDS TO OCCUR. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SATURDAY REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY,
BUT WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO
THE MID 70S, WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS HAPPENING IN OUR AREA IS TOWARDS THE I-84
CORRIDOR. FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, THERE WILL
BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THIS IS
MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THEN,
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE 30S TO 40S. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, THE
DETAILS SHOULD HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND WE SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH WE COULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. THE CPC CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS 8-
14.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON AND EVENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND WITHIN SHOWERS MVFR VSBY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO INDICATE THIS,
BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE PROB30S GROUPS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING TO 5-10 KT FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN AT 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY WHEN
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...KL/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...KL/MAIN
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