642
FXUS61 KALY 150528
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...AS OF 1:30 AM EDT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR WEST HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COHERENT LINE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO,
AND ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS THROUGH THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND UNTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT. OUR
00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS AN EML IN PLACE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACCORDINGLY SHOW SOME
POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND TONIGHT, SO IT IS NOT
SURPRISING THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THIS LINE. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PRIMARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WITH ALPW SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS LINE, WE ARE
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VT. WITH ANY STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED, WILL REITERATE
THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS, AND ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
AS AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER WERE RUNNING WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN COOLING TEMPERATURES
WHERE IT RAINS, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
PREVIOUS
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS, THOUGH SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 4
AM. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- GUSTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (~20-30%)
TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY
(50-80%).
- 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >4" SNOWFALL ENDING 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY ARE
30-40% ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
DISCUSSION:
INITIAL COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SECONDARY FRONT TRACKING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. REGION WILL
BE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER LEVEL
JET, PROVIDING STRONG FORCING. THERE WILL BE SOME MU CAPES OF
100-300 J/KG, GREATEST WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST FOR SOME SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN H850-H700 WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 30-40+ KT AND AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SOME HIGH-RES
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN ANY
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF SECOND FRONT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. SHOULD THE POTENTIAL
INCREASE FOR EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS, A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
ISSUED. HIGH TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 50S/40S AND EVEN INTO THE 30S
FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VT, AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN/GRAUPEL, COULD EVEN OCCUR IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY. 13Z NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >4"
SNOWFALL ENDING 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY ARE 30-40% ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, AND SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE
FURTHER, THEN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE, STRONG GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35-45 MPH
AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S AND 30S, WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S/30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND MAINLY MID/UPPER 40S WITHIN VALLEY
AREAS.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY, WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY, THEN SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
- FAIR BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/WEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, PERHAPS INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR WARMTH WILL BE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY. SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S, AND MONDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AFTER A MILD FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH THE ANTICIPATION FOR SUCH TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. SOME LIGHT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT WHETHER OR NOT THESE ACTUALLY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS IS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. LATEST CAMS DO
SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OF SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN IF A
SHOWER CROSSES INTO THE TERMINAL, RAIN MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND.
THEREFORE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED WITHIN THE TAF GROUPS TO
TRY AND PIN DOWN THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DUE TO LIGHT RATES AND VFR CEILING
HEIGHTS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON HOUSES A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SUCH STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS BELOW 10 KT BEFORE A
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCURS TOMORROW MORNING AND SPEEDS
INCREASE. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GANT/KL/MAIN
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GANT
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