203
FXUS61 KALY 151101
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 6:30 AM EDT
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BUT
THESE SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WE THEN GET A LULL IN ANY PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THAT HAVE SEEN MORE CLEARING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
PREVIOUS
MILD START TO THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN LAST NIGHT.
TODAY, LAT NIGHT'S INITIAL COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO
OUR EAST. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS UPSTATE NY. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE GET A BREAK IN ANY PRECIP FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING, BUT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOP. WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING
ALOFT COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UP TO A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, AND SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE GRADIENT WIND ALSO BECOMES GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS COULD GUST TO 35-40 MPH,
AND WHILE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THESE DO NOT
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO A) THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND B) DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HIGHS
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY WHERE 3-6" OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED.
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) IS
LOW.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS TO OUR EAST,
LEAVING US IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH COLD ADVECTION. WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS IN THE WESTERLY FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ IN PLACE, SOME
ISOLATED, LIGHTER SHOWERS COULD INDEED REACH THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
THERE WILL ALSO BE WESTERLY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. WE REMAIN UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND, AND WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALTHOUGH AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS.
LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER, GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN UNTIL IT OCCLUDES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH THE LLJ AT 40-45
KT ATOP THE MIXED LAYER IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED IN THE FUTURE THE
MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE
BERKSHIRES WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS >45 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
AS HIGH AS 30-50% IN THE 01Z NBM. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DEEPER MIXING. WE ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOIST,
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW, SO LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS. THE
REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES, BUT SHOULD
OVERALL BE MUCH DRIER THAN ON TUESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS FINALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS, WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY WHERE A GENERAL
3-6" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 28. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 20S TO 30S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARDS, EVENTUALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALSO
HELPING TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE, THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR. IT REMAINS BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH,
BUT GUST SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 25 MPH. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AS
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, DIMINISHING WINDS,
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER FRIDAY BUT THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
AREAS THAT CAN TAP INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEARING 70 DEGREES (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-90) WHILE
AREAS THAT REMAIN IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH COOLER (MOST
LIKELY WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS).
- AFTER A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT USHERS IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS, WE TREND COOLER AND DRIER
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
FRIDAY FEATURES A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. INITIAL SUNSHINE FADES BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THE WARM SECTOR SPREADING NORTH/EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON SATURDAY AS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY CLOSES OFF AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WOULD ALSO LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD ALSO TIGHTEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES RELATE TO THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. WHERE THE WARM SECTOR CAN PENETRATE AND
LINGER WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LIKELY
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES WHILE AREAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
EARLIER WILL BE COOLER. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES GREATER
THAN 75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH 30 - 50% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER
70 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS GREATER THAN
75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW 55 DEGREE IN THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAINTAINED LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY BUT
AREAS THAT CAN TAP INTO THE WARM SECTOR (AGAIN, MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF I-90) WILL EXPERIENCE SOME DRY TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR, AREAS THAT HAD A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
WE TURN SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OUR COMPACT LOW BUILDS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKE TO AMPLIFY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY 18 -
23 UTC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN LEAD TO MVFR VIS/CIGS ALONG
WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 30-35KTS. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS INITIALLY REACHES GFL/ALB BY 18-21 UTC BEFORE
PROGRESSING TO POU AND PSF BY 19- 22 UTC. SOME SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HIGHER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING ANY STORMS.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES BY 22-23 UTC, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME RESULTING IN A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS TRACKING TOWARDS THE TERMINALS, MAINLY ALB AND PSF,
BETWEEN 00 AND 06 UTC. INITIAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE RAIN BUT WILL
MIX WITH AND TURN TO SNOW TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT PSF.
DURING ANY SHOWER, MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY 14 - 16 UTC TODAY BECOMING SUSTAINED 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS. ONCE THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BY 18 - 22
UTC, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND TURN GUSTY BECOMING SUSTAINED
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS. BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH
CONTINUED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40%, HOWEVER, WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, THURSDAY MAY BE A DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS RH VALUES DROP TO 25-35% FOR VALLEY AREAS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN
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