367
FXUS61 KALY 160238
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AFTER A
TREND TOWARDS DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE:
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY
(50-80%).
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS, SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 1037 PM EDT
PREVIOUS SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED GREATLY IN SPATIAL SPREAD, THOUGH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS ON ITS WAY FROM UPSTREAM. AS WE REMAIN IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A FLUX OF MOISTURE OFF
THE LAKES, LEADING TO UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND
SOUTHERN GREENS OVERNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP, ANY
LINGERING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
BECOMING FULLY SNOW IN THESE AREAS. THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A HIGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL PAIR WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING TO SUSTAIN
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL MAINTAIN THE EXPECTATION OF FALLING TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (7.5-9.5C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS) ALLOWING WIND GUSTS OF
35-50 MPH BENEATH THESE SHOWERS. A COUPLE OF CG LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS BENEATH THE TALLEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS, WITH SOME GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REACHING 35-45 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TACONICS,
SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES, WITH A FEW LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLY EXTENDING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY
(50-80%).
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (20-40%
CHANCES).
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORS STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT GUSTS
(35-45 MPH) EXPECTED WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND/OR GRAUPEL EXPECTED (20-40%)
CHANCES, EXCEPT FREQUENT AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF RTE 28.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 40S IN
VALLEYS. TEMPS MAY FLUCTUATE AS SNOW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH,
DIPPING INTO THE 30S AT TIMES.
SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL
BREEZY IN THE EVENING, WITH SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN GUSTS LATER
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILDER THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
VALLEYS AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CLEAR AND CHILLY THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MANY
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90.
- LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DUE TO
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION:
FAIR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM, REACHING THE 70S OR SLIGHTLY WARMER, WHILE TEMPS
NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT REMAIN OR FALL INTO THE 50S OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER.
13Z/NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >0.25" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM SATURDAY
ARE GREATEST (40-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30% FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
RETURN NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S, ALTHOUGH COULD BE
COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT IF FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WINDS HAVE NOW
SHIFTED GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 10-20KT WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT. INFRARED SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED CLEARING
IN SOME AREAS OF LOWER TERRAIN WITH LATEST METAR OBS INDICATING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER EACH TERMINAL. SCATTERED, LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND COULD
IMPACT THE ALB AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN TACT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE OVER THE COURSE OF THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE
MET WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT, UPSLOPE SNOW
AT PSF OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE
00Z CYCLE AND WILL MAINTAIN THEIR WESTERLY FLOW WITH 10-20KT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS OF 25-35KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH
CONTINUED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-45 MPH. MIN RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40%, HOWEVER, WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, THURSDAY MAY BE A DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS RH VALUES DROP TO 25-35% FOR VALLEY AREAS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/MAIN
NEAR TERM...GANT/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...KL/MAIN
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