803
FXUS61 KALY 170230
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY STARTS OUT
DRY, ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 1020 PM EDT, STILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT, THE SW ADIRONDACKS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUDS REMAIN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD, OUTSIDE OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND HELDERBERGS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH MOST
PEAK GUSTS NOW BELOW 30 MPH. EXPECT A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
GIVEN LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A MORE GRADUAL CLEARING TREND DEVELOPING
TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S, ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
[PREVIOUS]...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO TONIGHT, WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL GUST 30-45 MPH AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH AT KALB, BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS
HAVE BEEN < 45 MPH. EVEN WITH THE PERSISTENT WIND, LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER/MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. ALONG WITH NW
FLOW, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO PARTS OF THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND S.
GREENS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1" IN SOME SPOTS.
ON THU, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT MUCH OF THE DAY FOR NW WINDS TO GUST
15-25 MPH, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WED. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH COOLER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES(40-70%) FOR SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE(20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT, SO WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, AS LOW TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON FRI, HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE
COAST WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH/EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA FRI NIGHT, BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GREATEST PROBS FOR SHOWERS(50-70%) LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE, WITH
DECREASING CHANCES (20-40%) FARTHER SOUTH/EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK MUCH MILDER WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ON SAT, MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR IN
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE ENCROACHING ON THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER,
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST TEMPERATURES COULD GET QUITE WARM AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH A GUSTY SW BREEZE DEVELOPING. NBM PROBS FOR
HIGHS > 70F ARE 70- 95% IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND THE
HUDSON VALLEY EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AS SBCAPE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 300-700
J/KG RANGE, BUT THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN
OCCUR SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED (DEWPOINTS LOW/MID
50S).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES (15%) OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST, SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE
A PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND 60S AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT DIMINISH TO LIGHT
AND CALM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CLOUD COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) 4.2 PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN
THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 40S.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES AS
LATEST PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. FINALLY
FEELING LIKE SPRING OUTSIDE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DON'T GET TOO COLD EITHER WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO KALB THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MORE
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AT KPSF MOST OF TONIGHT, WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CIGS COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO BORDERLINE
IFR LEVELS AT KPSF LATER TONIGHT. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY
10Z-13Z/THU, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-18 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35
KT. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 5-12 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15-23 KT. ON THURSDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...
THURSDAY MAY BE A DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH
VALUES DROP TO 20-30% FOR VALLEY AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. WE HAVE COORDINATED WITH STATE PARTNERS WITH REGARDS TO
FUELS BEING DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN EASTERN NY FOR THE CATSKILL, UPPER
HUDSON AND MIDDLE HUDSON FIRE WEATHER ZONES. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN NY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THURSDAY
WITH 30-45% EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH DEVELOPING. SO IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/MAIN
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