755
FXUS61 KALY 171046
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND BEGIN OUR TREND TOWARDS
WARMER WEATHER; TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A TREND BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AGAIN
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...AS OF 6:25 AM EDT
MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR OUT ALREADY, SO WE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO BRING IN THE CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EXCEPTION IS WESTERN VT/MA WHERE PLENTY OF
UPSLOPE CLOUDS STILL REMAIN, ALTHOUGH THESE TOO SHOULD SCATTER
OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY WITH A DEW POINT BOUNDARY NEAR
I-87 CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT BUT
BREEZY SPRING DAY. PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...
PREVIOUS
OUR REGION REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WILL
GENERALLY END UP IN THE 20S TO 30S, WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.
TODAY, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARDS TOWARDS WESTERN NY, BUT
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS ON THE TIGHTER SIDE ACROSS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH MAX GUSTS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 20-30 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL HELP PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND
THEREFORE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. GIVEN THE ABOVE, WE ARE EXPECTING
DEEP MIXING TODAY, AND HAVE LEANED WARMER THAN THE NBM WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH
VALUES. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES(40-70%) FOR SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE(20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE.
THEREFORE, WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WE
WENT A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S.
TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OF TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST, AND
WE GET INTO A S/SW FLOW REGIME WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS OUR REGION, ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS, BUT HIGHS STILL SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S FOR THE TERRAIN TO 60S FOR VALLEYS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH
HOW FAR THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT, AND IF THEY WILL MAKE IT
INTO OUR CWA AT ALL. WINDS ALSO TURN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AGAIN WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS ACROSS OUR REGION
AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, LOWS WILL
BE QUITE WARM, MAINLY IN THE 40S TO 50S. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW
AN IMPRESSIVE EML MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SO WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL. MOISTURE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION
AND WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WHEN IT COMES TO
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
REGION CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TRACKING
EASTWARDS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT DOESN'T CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. SO, ON SATURDAY, NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY REMAIN COOLER
WITH MORE SHOWERS, BUT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WILL BE FULLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL INTO THE
70S, WITH SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SBCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG, BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND LACK OF A STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM ALOFT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE 850 MB LLJ INCREASING TO
40+ KT IN THE AFTERNOON, ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD MIX DOWN
SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE EVENING, BUT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS TO
THE EAST AND WE LOSE ANY INSTABILITY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN THE ADKS TO AROUND 50
NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS INCREASE LATE MON PM INTO TUE WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL OF A 0.25" FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING BY 8 AM TUE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EASTER SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER
40S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS. A COLD NIGHT DUE
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WARM ADVECTION PCPN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH A FEW 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S INTO THE MID 40S. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS THE REGION BY TUE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST NBM
PROBABILITIES NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR 0.25".
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER QUEBEC WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
LINGERING DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S WITH LOWS COOLING DOWN IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
FOR THE MID WEEK WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH MVFR CIGS AT KPSF IN THE 2-3
KFT AGL WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS 14-15Z/THU. THE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO L0 KT OR LESS AFTER 23Z/THU. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
*SPS FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD IN EFFECT FOR THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS TODAY*
TODAY, RH VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 20-30% THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STATE PARTNERS IN CT AND MA HAVE CONFIRMED THAT FUELS ARE
NOT YET RECEPTIVE, THE NYS DEC HAS CONFIRMED THAT FUELS IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS HAVE DRIED OUT ENOUGH FROM THE
RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK TO WARRANT AND SPS FOR TODAY. WE
HAVE ALSO COORDINATED WITH BTV TO DETERMINE THAT AN SPS WILL NOT
BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN VT BASED ON THE FACT THAT THIS ARE SAW
MORE UPSLOPE PRECIP YESTERDAY. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH RH VALUES
RECOVERING TO 60-80% OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THURSDAY
WITH 30-45% EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH DEVELOPING, BUT THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN RH
VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
THEREFORE, IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN
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