631
FXUS61 KALY 172318
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT, PROVIDING CLEAR AND
COOL CONDITIONS. MUCH OF FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR
AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 715 PM EDT, JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS CURRENTLY
PERSISTING. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WITHIN A
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET, WITH LOWS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MANY
AREAS.
[PREVIOUS]...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT, PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON FRI, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WITH A
WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. SO
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF
ALBANY. MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THOUGH, ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES(30-70%) FOR SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE(20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT SETS UP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY FRI NIGHT, WHICH
IS WHERE THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE. WILL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH/EAST, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE W. ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEGC/KM), EVIDENT OF AN EML. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH MILDER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SAT, OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIMITED
LIKELY POPS SAT MORNING TO FAR NW AREAS CLOSER TO THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH A GUSTY SW BREEZE AROUND 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NBM PROBS FOR HIGHS > 75F ARE 60-90% IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AS SBCAPE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 300-700 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER
WINDS GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY JET
~40-50 KT AT 850 MB.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO SAT EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND LIMITED FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
COMMENCING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF ALBANY BY EARLY SUN
MORNING.
SUN LOOKS DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY, THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT
NW BREEZE GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" RAINFALL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA SUN NIGHT SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST
ON MON. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL MON/TUE WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN TUE
NIGHT INTO WED WITH FAIR/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THU, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN CHANCES WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 19/00Z...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD PASS THROUGH KGFL AFTER
19Z/FRI, HOWEVER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
*SPS FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD IN EFFECT FOR THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CATSKILLS TODAY*
RH VALUES LOW AS 15-25% THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STATE PARTNERS IN CT AND MA HAVE
CONFIRMED THAT FUELS ARE NOT YET RECEPTIVE, THE NYS DEC HAS
CONFIRMED THAT FUELS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS HAVE
DRIED OUT ENOUGH FROM THE RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK TO
WARRANT AND SPS FOR TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO COORDINATED WITH BTV TO
DETERMINE THAT AN SPS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN VT BASED
ON THE FACT THAT THIS ARE SAW MORE UPSLOPE PRECIP YESTERDAY.
WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WITH RH VALUES RECOVERING TO 60-80% OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THURSDAY
WITH 30-45% EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING, BUT THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN RH
VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
THEREFORE, IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO TODAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN/JPV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page