166
FXUS61 KALY 180529
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, MOST OF TODAY LOOKS DRY,
ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 128 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY
AND PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 20S AND 30S WITH A FEW
LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
OVER W-CENTRAL NY BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. WE
START TO INCREASE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AFTER SUNRISE. DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WE LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST WITH A
WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. SO
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE WARM
FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF
ALBANY. MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THOUGH, ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES(30-70%) FOR SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE(20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT SETS UP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY FRI NIGHT, WHICH
IS WHERE THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE. WILL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH/EAST, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE W. ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
DEGC/KM), EVIDENT OF AN EML. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH MILDER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SAT, OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIMITED
LIKELY POPS SAT MORNING TO FAR NW AREAS CLOSER TO THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH A GUSTY SW BREEZE AROUND 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NBM PROBS FOR HIGHS > 75F ARE 60-90% IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY AS SBCAPE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 300-700 J/KG RANGE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER
WINDS GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY JET
~40-50 KT AT 850 MB.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO SAT EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND LIMITED FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
COMMENCING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF ALBANY BY EARLY SUN
MORNING.
SUN LOOKS DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY, THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT
NW BREEZE GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" RAINFALL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA SUN NIGHT SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST
ON MON. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY ENDING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL MON/TUE WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN TUE
NIGHT INTO WED WITH FAIR/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THU, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN CHANCES WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 19/00Z...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD PASS THROUGH KGFL AFTER
19Z/FRI, HOWEVER FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THURSDAY
WITH 30-45% EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING, BUT THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WHEN RH
VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
THEREFORE, IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO TODAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN/JPV/TAW
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