266
FXUS61 KALY 181047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY WELL NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OPEN THE WEEKEND
WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER, BREEZY
CONDITION AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 627 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
DUE TO THE DEPARTING ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER
QUICKLY FROM THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS H850 TEMPS RISE +1 TO +2
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS MAY
BREAK OUT LATE IN THE PM OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS 25-30 MPH IN THE MID/LATE PM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO TO AROUND 60F OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MID 60S TO CLOSE TO 70F IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SAT.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (35-70%) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE(15-24%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT PM FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.
DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER, AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
EARLY ON. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY GET TAPPED INTO BY THE
WARM FRONT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 28.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
LIKELY STAYS DRY ASIDE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES. THE 12/3-KM NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8C/KM RANGE OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER FORCING
LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. AS
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED WITH THE EML AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SOME SMALL HAIL COULD FALL IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD, AS THE FORECAST AREA SURGES INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE WEEKEND OPENS ON A BALMY NOTE. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 60-95% CHANCES FOR MAX TEMPS TO EXCEED 75F
IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT. THE COLD FRONT MAKES SLOW, BUT STEADY
PROGRESS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 500
J/KG OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES. SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 50-60
KT. A DISJOINTED OR BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
COME THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER POPS IN. SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE LINE COULD BE
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT THE
HEIGHT OF UPDRAFTS. GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST CONTINUES FROM
SPC. IF MORE INSTABILITY SETS UP, THEN A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY
OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS,
CAPITAL REGION AND THE TACONICS NORTH AND WEST.
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST, AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK PARK WITH UPPER 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH BRISK WEST WINDS.
EASTER SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WILL BE IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE. THE FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS
ALOFT SUN NIGHT, BUT NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH CRESTING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC,
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK YIELDS A PERIOD OF DRY,
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION:
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO
DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING, WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN INBOUND WARM FRONT ATTENDING A SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACKING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BENEATH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ALOFT. DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ITS RESULTANT
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES AN ONSET MORE OR LESS
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (50-70% POPS) IS ATTRIBUTED TO MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS SYSTEM TO OCCLUDE, FORCING
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK SUCH THAT QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
LATEST NBM VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1" TO 0.3" THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM, FORCING THE RETURN TO PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-24% POPS) THAT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
MAINTAINED AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS, AND POSSIBLY SURPASSING THAT BY
THURSDAY. GENERALLY, HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY WARMING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S WITH
UPPER 30S ISOLATED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE 30S WILL BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN TANDEM WITH
LOW 40S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTING RAIN REACHING THE GROUND FROM
ANTICIPATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS, WHILE CALM THIS
MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-20KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY,
CONNECTICUT DUE TO INPUT FROM CT STATE FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT AND A FEW
WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS
THURSDAY WITH 30-40% EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
DEVELOPING, BUT THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY WHEN RH VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. THEREFORE, IT
APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE
SPREAD TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
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