521
FXUS61 KALY 021545
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR AFTERNOON SUN AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS NORTH AND
WEST. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(15-29%) WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. INSOLATION
WITHIN A RATHER HUMID AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S WILL GENERATE INCREASED INSTABILITY. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR SB CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED
500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE CAPPED AT JUST 20 - 40% TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG WITH COVERAGE MUCH MORE LIMITED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH ONTARIO, WE WILL ENTER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 70S AND EVEN NEAR 80 IN VALLEY AREAS. WHILE THE
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST, A SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION INITIATES INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS BY 17-18 UTC BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
HEADING TOWARDS I-90 THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF RATHER STRONG
LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SHOULD IT
DEVELOP, AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES REACH 30 - 45KTS. WHILE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, THE LIFTING MECHANISM LOOKS A BIT WEAK AND THAT MAY
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE AREAS NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
I-90 THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS ITS
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE LINEAR STORM MODE OR STORM CLUSTERS ARE
FAVORED, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN ALSO SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE WEAKENS AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE TRUE SFC COLD FRONT THEN
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH/EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING AHEAD THE FRONT TONIGHT, MOST CAN
EXPECT MUGGY/MILD CONDITIONS AND WHERE SKIES CAN AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD TREND COOLER/DRIER
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (15-29%) FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING CLOSE TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/FORCING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. SPC HREFS SUGGEST MU CAPES
MAY REACH 750-1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND BERKSHIRES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AMID 30-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS, MAINLY
FAVORING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THIS AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME WEAKER, ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, WITH MAINLY 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC STATES AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS SE CANADA, WITH SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THESE AREAS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT WILL ALSO TURN
COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, ALTHOUGH WHERE RAIN OCCURS, EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED WITHIN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY TREK
EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES +1 TO +2 STDEV WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN SOME SPOTS, MAINLY ON TUESDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR GREATER IS BETWEEN 60 AND 90 PERCENT WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR 1.00 INCHES OR GREATER AT 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LOW PLACEMENT AND
TRACK AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. LATEST TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR DRIER WEATHER
ARRIVING BY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO NOSE INTO THE
AREA FROM CANADA.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
60S TO LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AND
PEAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S ON
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE FROM THE BUILDING
HIGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SAT...A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR LEVELS (KPSF LIKELY
THE LAST TO DO SO). ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAINLY AT KALB/KGFL (PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED) WITH REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY AT KPOU/KPSF (ONLY VCSH). CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KT.
WIND WILL TREND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...KL/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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