248
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW
APPROACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 ACROSS THE TACONICS, NW CT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. A
FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NYS SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
AFTER 3 AM, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOULD THIS CLEARING OCCUR, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED EARLIER RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST.
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
[PREVIOUS]...AS OF 1043 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND
NORTHERN CATSKILLS THIS HOUR. THE LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH. THE SHORT-WAVE AND SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
DECREASE TO UNDER 250 J/KG. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
RUMBLES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
WITH MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING AHEAD THE FRONT TONIGHT, MOST
CAN EXPECT MUGGY/MILD CONDITIONS AND WHERE SKIES CAN AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD
TREND COOLER/DRIER ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS
SUNRISE.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THE INCOMING BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND THE
I-90 CORRIDOR WITH A WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE CONVEYOR BELT OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN/MS VALLEY AMPLIFIES INTO A
CUT-OFF LOW. A MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1"
CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. AS ADDITIONAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THESE WILL ACT AS THE NECESSARY FORCING MECHANISM TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING LOOKS
MAINLY DRY BUT THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING (10AM - 12PM) AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (2 -
5PM) BEFORE RAIN EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALL
IN ALL, NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT BUT THERE LIKELY WILL BE A 2 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN. GIVEN THE HIGHER PWATS AND BREAKS OF EARLY
MORNING SUN, MORNING INSOLATION SHOULD AID IN GENERATING SOME
INSTABILITY BUT THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THUS, THE 12 UTC HREF SHOWS 40-60%
CHANCE FOR SB CAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN THESE AREAS
WHILE PROBABILITIES IN AREAS NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
ARE NEAR 0%. SPC MAINTAINS ITS MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AND HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 30-40KTS THAT CAN SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUT HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS REMAINS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF
ALBANY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS.
THE STALLED FRONT PRESSES SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT BY 21 - 00 UTC WITH AREAS NORTH/WEST OF THE FRONT
TRENDING DRIER AS COOLER/LESS HUMID FILLS IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS LINGER IN THESE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD BUT AS INSTABILITY WANES, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW AMPLIFIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LEADING TO
BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT
TO ACTUALLY QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ADVECT WARM/MOIST AIR OVER THE BOUNDARY. WE TRENDED POPS
BACK TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS ALSO SUPPORTING HIGHER HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A CUT-LOW APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS
A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1.5 INCHES
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD INTO BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY, THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.
- POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED FLOODING CAN OCCUR WHERE RAINFALL
REPEATEDLY IMPACTS A GIVEN AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN RATHER DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT GREEN-UP, WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF IT
ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHEAST. A 40-50KT SOUTHERLY JET AHEAD OF
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL DIRECT A PWAT PLUME WITH VALUES 1-1.5"
TOWARDS THE STALLED BOUNDARY POSITIONED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
I-90 HELPING MAINTAIN OVERRUNNING AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOCUSED
HERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS (60 - 90% CHANCE OF RAIN) THROUGH
THE DAY FOR THESE AREAS WHILE THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT MORE DRY TIME AS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FILLS
IN BEHIND THE LIFTING FRONT (LOWER POPS AT 25 - 40%). BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE
IN THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WARMER IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHERN ZONES. ELEVATED DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOT AS COOL. THE STALLED BOUNDARY BECOMES
LESS DEFINED SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME.
OUR WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CUT-
OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
IT TO BECOME BETTER POSITIONED OVERHEAD MAINTAINING ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERLY JET ALSO
CONTINUES TO DIRECT THE MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE REGION WITH THE
NAEFS SHOWING PWATS AND IVT VALUES RANKING IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGICAL SUPPORTING CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS WET STRETCH. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 50 - 80% POPS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THESE TWO DAYS
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 CLOSER TO THE
MOISTURE PLUME. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 - 60% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD TO EXCEED 1 INCH AND
JUST 10 - 20% TO EXCEED 2 INCHES AGAIN HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
SOUTH OF I-90. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN ITS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) FOR THESE TWO DAYS BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADES TO A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THIS
A DAY 5 OUTLOOK AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL
AND QPF TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS AND COLLABORATE ANY
NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE ERO. CONCEPTUAL MODELS FROM PAST CSTAR
AND LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT CUT-OFF LOW AND MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENTS TYPICALLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO TRAIN OR REPEATEDLY IMPACT A GIVEN
AREA ESPECIALLY WHEN PWATS ARE HIGH AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES BECOME STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL. SUCH CASES CAN EASILY
RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED FLOODING AND IN MORE
EXTREME SITUATIONS CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN
WE ARE STILL 3-4 DAYS AWAY, CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO KNOW
IF SUCH A FAVORABLE SET-UP WILL BE PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
WE WILL MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE IN THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION:
CUTOFF LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR NY/PA TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN. AMPLE FORCING WITH CVA AROUND THE LOW, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.00") WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO HOLD NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING
FAVORED, WITH LATEST NBM KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
THANKFULLY, RELIEF FROM THE RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO
SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVING FOR THE DAYTIME THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE BACK NEAR NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF
12:55 AM EDT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING,
ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING
THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS PSF - WE ARE EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO DIE OUT BEFORE THEY GET TO PSF, BUT IF THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS HOLDS TOGETHER THEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-0730Z. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION. MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR FOG TO FORM WOULD BE ALB
DUE TO THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TONIGHT. EXPECTING
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER 08Z, SO IF FOG DOES FORM MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD WOULD BE THROUGH 08-11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT IF FOG FORMS THEN IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AT PSF DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME IF ANY SHOWERS REACH
THE TERMINAL.
IF ANY FOG FORMS OVERNIGHT, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THHROUGH MID-TO
LATE MORNING AT GFL, AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALB/POU/PSF. GFL
WILL BE NORTH/WEST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT HERE.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, ARE AT POU/PSF,
FOLLOWED BY ALB. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF POTENTIAL
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON USING PROB30 GROUPS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT POU/PSF. WE HAVE ALSO MOVED
UP THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO END BY 21-22Z WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, EXCEPT AT PSF WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT INCREASE
TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NE AT GFL/ALB AND FROM THE SOUTH AT POU/PSF.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO THE NE AT POU AND NW AT PSF BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ONCE ANY STORMS COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
THEN GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/SPECIALE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...MAIN
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