393
FXUS61 KALY 030817
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 4 AM EDT, STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SE VT AND PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT MAINLY
EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 6 AM. OTHERWISE, AS SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP, AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP WITHIN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN GLENS FALLS AND ALBANY AROUND
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. INITIALLY, THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS NW AREAS (SW ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION) BY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A
FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY,
AS THE FRONT TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST
HREF MUCAPES POTENTIALLY REACHING/EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, GREATEST FROM THE SE CATSKILLS ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN VT. IN
ADDITION, MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT OVERTOP THIS INSTABILITY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER,
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AS WELL GIVEN
BACKED AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS PROVIDING POCKETS OF 0-3 KM
SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. SO, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR LARGE HAIL WITHIN ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT
INITIALLY DEVELOP. SPC HAS PLACED MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 IN NY
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY, AND GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S TO THE NORTH/WEST, WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS ONLY REACHING THE 60S
AND FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSE TO I-84
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE, WITH SCATTERED
LIGHTER SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO
LOWER/MID 60S, WARMEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE SHOWER COVERAGE IS
LIMITED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. RAIN MAY BE MORE
SHOWERY/INTERMITTENT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. REMAINING COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THOUGH COULD BE COOLER IN AREAS WHERE STEADY RAIN
PERSISTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30 -
50% CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TRANSLATING EASTWARDS, BECOMING CENTERED OVER OUR REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST, THIS WILL HELP SET UP A CORRIDOR OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION. 850 MB
V WIND ANOMALIES AND PWAT ANOMALIES BOTH LOOK TO BE 1-2 SIGMA ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 1-1.25" PER THE LATEST NAEFS. AS THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARDS, STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL
OVERLAP WITH THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, SO WE ARE EXPECTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ECMWF EFI AND SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES
ARE AROUND 0.8 AND 1, RESPECTIVELY, FOR QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, INDICATING THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN HERE MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE NBM HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, WPC HAS
A MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR MOST OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY, WHICH SEEMS
APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE SETUP AT THIS LEAD TIME. WHILE AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, INSTABILITY OVERALL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW GETS KICKED
NORTHEASTWARDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME,
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WEDNESDAY ,ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST, SHOWERS SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS AND NOT AS
HEAVY AS ON TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST, A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW AS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE CUTOFF UPPER LOWS AT LONGER
LEAD TIMES. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAIN LOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE
DAYS BEFORE WE ARE ABLE TO IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS. FOR NOW,
WILL LEAN NEAR NBM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. NEVERTHELESS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ALOFT
NEARBY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF
12:55 AM EDT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING,
ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING
THROUGH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS PSF - WE ARE EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO DIE OUT BEFORE THEY GET TO PSF, BUT IF THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS HOLDS TOGETHER THEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-0730Z. THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION. MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR FOG TO FORM WOULD BE ALB
DUE TO THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TONIGHT. EXPECTING
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER 08Z, SO IF FOG DOES FORM MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD WOULD BE THROUGH 08-11Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT IF FOG FORMS THEN IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AT PSF DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME IF ANY SHOWERS REACH
THE TERMINAL.
IF ANY FOG FORMS OVERNIGHT, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THHROUGH MID-TO
LATE MORNING AT GFL, AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALB/POU/PSF. GFL
WILL BE NORTH/WEST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND WILL LIKELY SEE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT HERE.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, ARE AT POU/PSF,
FOLLOWED BY ALB. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF POTENTIAL
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON USING PROB30 GROUPS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY AT POU/PSF. WE HAVE ALSO MOVED
UP THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO END BY 21-22Z WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, EXCEPT AT PSF WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT INCREASE
TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NE AT GFL/ALB AND FROM THE SOUTH AT POU/PSF.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO THE NE AT POU AND NW AT PSF BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ONCE ANY STORMS COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS
THEN GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH SOME
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES OR LOCALLY
HIGHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
INDICATE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES (~10-20%) FOR SOME POINTS TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ON THE HOUSATONIC RIVER
AT GAYLORDSVILLE, THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT KAST BRIDGE, AND THE
HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN. SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING
VEGETATION IS LIKELY OFFSETTING THE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, SHOULD GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF 3-4
INCHES) OCCUR, PROBABILITIES OF RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...MAIN
HYDROLOGY...KL
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