628
FXUS61 KALY 032019
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
AREAS WELL SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN
LINE/CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY WILL WANE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THERE WILL A BREAK IN THE
SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE NEXT SURGE OF
FORCING ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THERE WILL BE SOME NON-SEVERE T-STORMS
AROUND AS WELL. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 50S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ON SUN, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR THE
I-84 CORRIDOR WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FETCH
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE +1 TO +2 STDEV, SO PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR.
TIMING BOUTS OF RAINFALL ARE TRICKY, WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SUN MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUN
AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED SO DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS AROUND, WITH MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
I-90 AND 60S TO NEAR 70F SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION:
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED
NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV
PERSIST AT WELL. SO PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF WHEN EXACT TIMING OF
BETTER FORCING OCCURS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MON IS
A NOTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ROUND OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MAX 6-HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.75" SO WHILE 3-DAY
TOTALS EXCEED 2+ INCHES, RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS AND NOT
OVERLY HEAVY IN ANY SHORT PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING THREAT.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN FROM 8 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
DISCUSSION:
PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON TUE, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE SYSTEM'S
OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING LOCALLY RAINFALL
RATES WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE FINALLY KICKS THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS
FAR OUT, SO WILL PRIMARILY MENTION LIKELY POPS DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM SE CANADA LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
IN WAKE OF THIS, THERE SHOULD FINALLY BE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY CLOSE OFF BY FRI, BUT
POSITIONED FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK SO WHILE
IT WILL TURN COOLER, SHOWERS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AS OF 6:25 AM EDT, ALB AND PSF SEEING LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS. POU HAS SEEN SOME MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS, WHILE GFL IS VFR.
EXPECTING THE FOG/MIST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALB/POU, AND NO LATER THAN 13Z AT PSF. ONCE FOG/MIST
DISSIPATES, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT GFL, WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. AT
ALB/POU/PSF, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, BUT THERE IS A
GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO HAVE OPTED TO GO TO TEMPO
GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT, LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. ADDITIONAL
LINGERING CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT
FROM THE N/NE AT GFL AND S AT POU/PSF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO
15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT POU/PSF ALSO
SWITCH TO THE N/NE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS END AND. WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET
LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH SOME MINOR/URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES (~10-30%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER, WEST CANADA
CREEK, HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, AND
SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING VEGETATION WILL LIKELY OFFSET
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SHOULD GREATER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES) OCCUR, PROBABILITIES
OF RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
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