697
FXUS61 KALY 040156
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 956 PM EDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER
TODAY, ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TAKING OVER, INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENT SHOWS SOME BATCHES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SCHOHARIE COUNTY, THE HILL TOWNS AND THE CAPITAL REGION,
AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. MRMS
SHOWS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING
RATES AROUND A TENTH OR TWO PER HOUR AT MOST. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT RATES LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST ALL AREAS
MAY WIND UP GETTING SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, SO WILL KEEP POPS
RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY, MOST AREAS WON'T
BE SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OVERNIGHT, SO WILL KEEP THUNDER
OUT FOR MOST AREAS. STILL, A RUMBLE OR TWO CAN'T BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT. IT WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TO MID 50S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ON SUN, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR THE
I-84 CORRIDOR WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FETCH
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE +1 TO +2 STDEV, SO PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR.
TIMING BOUTS OF RAINFALL ARE TRICKY, WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SUN MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUN
AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED SO DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS AROUND, WITH MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
I-90 AND 60S TO NEAR 70F SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION:
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED
NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV
PERSIST AT WELL. SO PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF WHEN EXACT TIMING OF
BETTER FORCING OCCURS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MON IS
A NOTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ROUND OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MAX 6-HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.75" SO WHILE 3-DAY
TOTALS EXCEED 2+ INCHES, RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS AND NOT
OVERLY HEAVY IN ANY SHORT PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING THREAT.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN FROM 8 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
DISCUSSION:
PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON TUE, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE SYSTEM'S
OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING LOCALLY RAINFALL
RATES WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE FINALLY KICKS THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS
FAR OUT, SO WILL PRIMARILY MENTION LIKELY POPS DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM SE CANADA LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
IN WAKE OF THIS, THERE SHOULD FINALLY BE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY CLOSE OFF BY FRI, BUT
POSITIONED FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK SO WHILE
IT WILL TURN COOLER, SHOWERS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD OF THE REGION, HOWEVER, THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY REMAINS RATHER MOIST. THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. KGFL/KALB ARE ALREADY SEEING IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE,
KPSF/KPOU IS VFR FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE SEEING THE LOW CLOUDS
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS HELPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AROUND. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AT
KALB/KGFL, IT WILL GENERALLY BE IFR FOR THE EVENING AND AGAIN
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SOME
ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VISIBILITY IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 FT RANGE). SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH SOME MINOR/URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES (~10-30%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER, WEST CANADA
CREEK, HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, AND
SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING VEGETATION WILL LIKELY OFFSET
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SHOULD GREATER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES) OCCUR, PROBABILITIES
OF RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
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