504
FXUS61 KALY 040522
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE
AS OF 1250 AM EDT, CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS AND NW CT
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION, AND WILL RESULT IN SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ONCE THIS
CLUSTER SHIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN RIDGETOPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, TO THE 50S FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
AS OF 956 PM EDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER
TODAY, ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TAKING OVER, INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENT SHOWS SOME BATCHES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SCHOHARIE COUNTY, THE HILL TOWNS AND THE CAPITAL REGION,
AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. MRMS
SHOWS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY SHOWING
RATES AROUND A TENTH OR TWO PER HOUR AT MOST. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT RATES LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST ALL AREAS
MAY WIND UP GETTING SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, SO WILL KEEP POPS
RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY, MOST AREAS WON'T
BE SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER OVERNIGHT, SO WILL KEEP THUNDER
OUT FOR MOST AREAS. STILL, A RUMBLE OR TWO CAN'T BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT. IT WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TO MID 50S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ON SUN, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR THE
I-84 CORRIDOR WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FETCH
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE +1 TO +2 STDEV, SO PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR.
TIMING BOUTS OF RAINFALL ARE TRICKY, WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SUN MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUN
AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED SO DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS AROUND, WITH MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF
I-90 AND 60S TO NEAR 70F SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION:
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED
NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV
PERSIST AT WELL. SO PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF WHEN EXACT TIMING OF
BETTER FORCING OCCURS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MON IS
A NOTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ROUND OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MAX 6-HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.75" SO WHILE 3-DAY
TOTALS EXCEED 2+ INCHES, RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS AND NOT
OVERLY HEAVY IN ANY SHORT PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING THREAT.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR OVER 1" OF RAIN FROM 8 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
DISCUSSION:
PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON TUE, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE SYSTEM'S
OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FRONT, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING LOCALLY RAINFALL
RATES WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED, AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE FINALLY KICKS THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS
FAR OUT, SO WILL PRIMARILY MENTION LIKELY POPS DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM SE CANADA LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
IN WAKE OF THIS, THERE SHOULD FINALLY BE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY CLOSE OFF BY FRI, BUT
POSITIONED FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK SO WHILE
IT WILL TURN COOLER, SHOWERS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT PSF TO MVFR AT POU/GFL AS OF 1:20 AM EDT...THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, EXPECTING A BATCH OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 9-10Z. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED GFL TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECTING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS BEHIND
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT PSF
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP, AND GFL/POU/ALB SEE
MODEST IMPROVEMENT BACK T MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR
CIGS. THEN, ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL SEE
A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WITHIN THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET,
EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO SEE A TREND DOWN TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/MIST AND IFR OR LOWER CIGS. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT POU/PSF THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ALB/GFL AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT PSF PICK UP TO 5-10 KT
FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
POU.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH SOME MINOR/URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES (~10-30%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER, WEST CANADA
CREEK, HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, AND
SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING VEGETATION WILL LIKELY OFFSET
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SHOULD GREATER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES) OCCUR, PROBABILITIES
OF RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...MAIN
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
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