850
FXUS61 KALY 040800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS MAY BECOME LESS
NUMEROUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 4 AM EDT, BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90. COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR.
THESE BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
DAYBREAK, BECOMING MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDWEST,
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL AREAS, WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
A COOL NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS WITHIN AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER TODAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MAX AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
WHILE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSITIONED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2
STDEV PERSIST AT WELL. SO PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE,
SOME OF WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THERE
IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF WHEN EXACT TIMING OF BETTER
FORCING OCCURS. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ON MON IS A
NOTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PUSH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER ONSHORE
EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH 60S IN THE
VALLEYS.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN ROUND OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MAX 6-HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.75" SO WHILE 3-DAY TOTALS
EXCEED 2+ INCHES, RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS AND NOT OVERLY
HEAVY IN ANY SHORT PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING THREAT. SEE
HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLING ALOFT, HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- TRENDING DRIER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME, A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A COUPLE RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AS
THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD AS WELL. HOWEVER, WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW, SHOWERS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS HEAVY
AS ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL FURTHER HELP
TO KICK THIS UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR EAST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. LOWS DROP INTO THE
40S TO LOW 50S, WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARDS
INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARDS, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALOFT
AND BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW SOMEWHERE OVER NY OR NEW ENGLAND.
WHERE EXACTLY THIS FEATURE TRACKS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT SINCE IT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT (850 TEMPS
POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS -3 TO -5C OVER OUR AREA), WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO
MID 60S (VALLEYS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, AND
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER HIGH-TERRAIN AREAS COULD SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING ONE OR BOTH NIGHTS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES, ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD. IF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS/PHASES
WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY, THEN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IF THIS HAPPENS, THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW
WILL BE TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING,
WE ARE EXPECTING THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY, AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOOKING AHEAD TO DAYS 8-14, THE CPC IS LEANING
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
LIFR AT PSF TO MVFR AT POU/GFL AS OF 1:20 AM EDT...THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, EXPECTING A BATCH OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 9-10Z. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED GFL TO MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECTING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS BEHIND
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT PSF
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP, AND GFL/POU/ALB SEE
MODEST IMPROVEMENT BACK T MAINLY VFR VSBYS AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR
CIGS. THEN, ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL SEE
A TREND TOWARDS MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WITHIN THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET,
EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO SEE A TREND DOWN TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/MIST AND IFR OR LOWER CIGS. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT POU/PSF THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST AT ALB/GFL AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT PSF PICK UP TO 5-10 KT
FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
POU.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, CURRENT ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES (~10-30%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER, WEST CANADA
CREEK, HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, AND
SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING VEGETATION WILL LIKELY OFFSET
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SHOULD GREATER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES) OCCUR, PROBABILITIES
OF RIVER FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...MAIN
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
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