076
FXUS61 KALY 050803
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS, LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES, CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS
AND ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN, LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN, LOW-
LYING, AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE (>15%
CHANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT) ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND WESTERN CT.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 4:00 AM EDT...A BROAD CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR THE BORDER IF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY, AND IS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SURFACE
LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GOES 16 WV
AND CIRA ALPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH, AND AS THIS
MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE ARE
SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE RAINFALL
RATES WERE HEAVIER EARLIER LAST NIGHT, CURRENT MAX MRMS
RAINFALL RATES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 0.25 IN PER HOUR, AND
THE RAIN IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
SO WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS, AND
WILL NOT REALLY CHANGE MUCH AT ALL BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS MORNING.
TODAY, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. WE MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIDE
EASTWARDS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY, AND THIS WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE S/SE LOW-LEVEL JET TO
35-45 KT AT 850 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASED IVT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
REGION. WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW, AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A GOOD
OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.2-1.4") AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. SO, WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HREF IS INDICATING THAT RAINFALL RATES COULD
BE AROUND 0.5" PER HOUR, WHICH IS NOT OVERLY HEAVY, BUT
POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THIS RAIN COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND
WESTERN CT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE S/SE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS. THEREFORE, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME AREAS DEALING WITH THE TYPICAL NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN
THE MORE URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THIS AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN TRAIN OVER THE MORE URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER,
LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
RATES, WHICH IS WHY THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT HIGHER. WPC
HAS PLACES PORTIONS EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO A SLIGHT RISK ERO, WITH THE
MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.
THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF
THE LLJ TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAT. IT WILL BE MUGGY TODAY, BUT
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO 60S AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A 10 TO 25% CHANCE FOR A FEW RIVER POINTS TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION:
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLIDES
EASTWARDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH THE
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
ALSO SEE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS
CLOSER TO OUR REGION, SO THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY (250-500
J/KG OF MLCAPE) ACROSS OUR REGION COMPARED TO MONDAY. UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO INCREASES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
AS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES UP FROM OUT SOUTH AROUND THE
ASYMMETRIC UPPER LOW AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. SO, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE OFF TO OUR EAST, PWATS WILL STILL BE AROUND TO JUST OVER AN
INCH FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AGAIN WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND
BETTER FORCING.
WPC HAS PLACED AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
INTO A MARGINAL RISK ERO, WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. ONCE AGAIN,
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR HYDRO ISSUES WOULD BE IF ANY HEAVIER
BANDS OF RAIN TRAIN OVER THE MORE URBAN AREAS, OR OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAIN THE PREVIOUS DAY. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDER SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S (VALLEYS) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY
OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING OFF TO
OUR NORTH/EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL NOW BE DISPLACED WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION, BUT WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, WE WILL
HAVE MORE INSTABILITY. SO, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LESS MOISTURE AROUND, ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT REALLY LOOK TO BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A CONCERN WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND KICKS THIS FIRST UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NET UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WILL ONLY GET TO AROUND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT BY 12Z THURSDAY. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL
STILL SEE LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WILL DROP INTO THE 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S, AND IT WILL NOT BE AS MUGGY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-30%) MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN, THERE SEEMS TO BE
INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY DIG FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST AND/OR NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW CLOSES OFF,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCLUDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, AS IT COULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
FOR NOW, 30-40% POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED, GREATEST FOR AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
IN ADDITION, UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SHOULD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCUR. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S EACH DAY, THOUGH COULD BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND
40S.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE PIVOTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAILING,
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CIGS. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE
EAST AND INCREASE AROUND 2000 FT AGL, SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY ALLOW
CIGS TO LIFT INTO VFR/MVFR TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER RAIN
ELEMENTS, WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO MVFR/IFR TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z/TUE AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 4-8 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT KPSF. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT ANY SITES
WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 8 KT, AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FG
AGL INCREASE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN
REPEATEDLY IMPACT OR TRAIN OVER A GIVEN AREA, PONDING OF WATER
IN URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED. EVEN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER THE MORE URBAN AREAS. WPC
HAS ELEVATED MUCH OF ULSTER, DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES
TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND
HAS MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.5 INCHES (UP TO 3-5 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT), THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES
(~10-30%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MOST
NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER, WEST CANADA CREEK, HOOSIC
RIVER, SCHOHARIE CREEK, ESOPUS CREEK, AND ON THE WALLOOMSAC.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT UPTAKE OF GREENING
VEGETATION AND THE LONG DURATION OF THIS RAIN EVENT WILL LIKELY
OFFSET WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE, THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...MAIN/SPECIALE
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