675
FXUS61 KALY 051935
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION:
AFTER A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER,
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING/MOISTURE ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO +2 TO
+3 STDEV SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH A SE LOW LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT(IVT). CAMS (INCLUDING HREF) ARE ALSO FOCUSING ON NW CT
INTO SE NY FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE E. CATSKILLS DUE TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT WITH
ADDITIONAL 2-3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL,
RESULTING IN A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING,
WITH A MARGINAL(LEVEL 1 OF 4) AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THERE IS A RISK FOR SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, SO A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED. TEMPERATURES WON'T MOVE MUCH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON
TUE, AS THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL TRACK
EAST TO WESTERN PA BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
ALONG THE FRONT, FORCING ON THE DIFFLUENT(EASTERN) SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING CUT-OFF (WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW) WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CUT-OFF LOW, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE) DEVELOPING FOR SCATTERED
T-STORMS. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KT, A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS, WITH MID 60S FOR HIGHS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE TUE EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS, ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING. MOISTURE PLUME (GREATEST IVT)
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, SO THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO END. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL MUCH
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S FOR LOWS. THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY AND EASTERN PA BY LATE TUE NIGHT, THEN TRACK EAST
ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND S. NEW ENGLAND ON WED. WITH A COLD
POOL ALOFT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
PRODUCING SCATTERED T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. WITH SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE 65-70F
RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD END WED EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
WELL NORTH/EAST INTO MAINE, WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
ON THU, GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A POSITIVE TILT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATER THU
INTO THU NIGHT. AN FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER OR IN VICINITY OF OUR
REGION FRI INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION AND TRACK
OF THE ANTICIPATED CUT-OFF LOW, THIS PATTERN MAY AGAIN RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING IF THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZES.
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE CUT-OFF LOW WON'T STAY AROUND FOR LONG,
AS IT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT. SO AT LEAST
SOME OF THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND MAY END UP WITH DECENT
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO GET BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS WITH DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO BUILD
IN SUN NIGHT INTO MON, WITH CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH 12 UTC/TUESDAY WITH
MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BECOMING
DIRECTED TOWARDS THE TERMINALS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON 18 - 21
UTC CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE TERMINALS SHOULD
MAINLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VIS/CIGS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS RAIN
BECOMES STEADY/MODERATE AT TIMES EXPECTING PERIODIC IFR VIS/CIG
THROUGH 06 UTC. AFTER 06 UTC, HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS
PERSISTING AT ALB AND POU THROUGH 12 UTC. LESS CONFIDENCE AT PSF
AND GFL SO ONLY SHOW SCT009 BUT MAINTAINED LOW MVFR CIGS/VIS.
STEADIEST RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTH BY 09 - 12 UTC TUESDAY WITH
JUST SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS THEREAFTER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 12 - 15
UTC. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10KT SHIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT ANY
SITES WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BELOW 8 KT, AS WINDS AROUND
2000 FG AGL INCREASE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO 30-40 KT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00 - 02 UTC. SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN A BIT
BREEZY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BECOMING SUSTAINED
5-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS, STRONGEST AT PSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS, SOME FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS EXPECTED. EVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS
OVER THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE URBAN AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
MANY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TUESDAY. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.5 INCHES (UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT), COMBINED WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND HAS INCREASED THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA. LATEST ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
INDICATE MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (~30-50%) FOR SOME POINTS TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER,
ESOPUS CREEK, WEST CANADA CREEK, HOOSIC RIVER, SCHOHARIE CREEK,
THE WALLOOMSAC.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...JPV
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